What the Company Does

POET Technologies Inc. is a designer and developer of photonic integrated circuits (PICs), light sources, and optical modules for the artificial intelligence and data center markets. Its patented technology, the Optical Interposer, enables seamless integration of electronic and photonic components on a single chip, using wafer-scale semiconductor manufacturing techniques. Based in San Jose (California) and listed on NASDAQ, POET is in a pre-revenue phase with a $5.6M+ order pipeline and $300M+ cash following a $150M placement in October 2025.

2026 Revenue Inflection

POET is in the midst of a pre-revenue to commercialization transition. The trajectory is clear: from $4K in revenue in Q3 2024 to $298K in Q3 2025 (x80), with firm orders of $5.6M+ to be delivered in 2026. Analysts project $91M in revenue for 2026, which would be a radical transformation of the financial profile. The key is volume ramp-up of 800G and 1.6T optical engines with module manufacturers (LuxshareTech, Adtran). The $300M+ cash provides a runway of 5+ years even without revenue, eliminating short-term liquidity risk.

How It Works

POET's Optical Interposer is a photonic-electronic co-integration platform at the wafer level. Instead of assembling optical and electronic components separately and then connecting them (a costly traditional approach), POET integrates everything on a single chip using standard semiconductor manufacturing techniques. The advantage is threefold:

• 50%+ cost reduction — Automated wafer-level fabrication vs manual piece-by-piece assembly
• 5x size reduction — Chip-scale integration vs bulky discrete modules
• Superior energy efficiency — Fewer connections = less signal loss and heat
• Scalability — The same platform supports 400G, 800G, 1.6T and 3.2T in daisy-chain architecture

Cash Fortress: Liquidity Risk Eliminated

With $300M+ in cash and a burn rate of ~$10-12M/quarter, POET has a 5+ year runway even without any additional revenue. This is a critical point for a pre-revenue company: the risk of forced dilution is eliminated in the short/medium term. The cash comes primarily from two 2025 raises ($75M + $150M). The October offering at $7.25 was oversubscribed by two fundamental managers, indicating strong institutional conviction. The question is no longer "Does POET have enough cash?" but "Will POET convert this cash into growth?".

Why NVIDIA Adopted CPO (Co-Packaged Optics)

In 2025, NVIDIA unveiled its Quantum-X InfiniBand and Spectrum-X Ethernet platforms with optics integrated directly into the processor package via TSMC's COUPE technology. The reason is simple: to build clusters of 1 million GPUs, it is physically impossible to use copper. Spectrum SN6800 switches offer 409.6 Tbps of bandwidth and 512 ports at 800 Gbps. NVIDIA and Broadcom are competing to dominate CPO — and optical engine suppliers like POET are at the heart of this supply chain.

POET on the Chessboard: David vs Goliath

With a MCap of $827M, POET is a micro-cap in a sector dominated by giants. NVIDIA ($3.2T) is 3,800x larger. Even Coherent ($15B) is 18x larger. This is both the risk and the opportunity: if POET captures even 1% of the AI optical engine market ($3-5B by 2028), that represents $30-50M in revenue — a radical transformation from the current $1.2M. POET's advantage is its IP-first approach: like ARM in processors, POET sells integration technology, not raw silicon. Partners (Mitsubishi, LuxshareTech) handle manufacturing. The risk is that a giant (Broadcom, Intel) develops a competitive in-house solution.

Max Pain = Magnet Toward $7.00

The Max Pain at $7.00 means market makers benefit from the price gravitating toward this level at expiration (Feb 20). The massive OI on $8 calls (9,133 contracts) and $9 (5,244) indicates a strong bullish speculative bias from retail. The 2.67 Call/Put ratio confirms the optimism. However, the current price ($5.58) is well below Max Pain: call buyers are losing. If the stock doesn't rally back toward $7 by Friday, ~27K calls expire worthless — releasing pressure for a post-expiration (OpEx) bounce.

Market Integrity Synthesis — POET

POET's market is under surveillance but not manipulated. Institutional accumulation (GS, MS, Jane Street = 2.77M shares in 4 days) is a strong legitimacy signal. Partners (Mitsubishi, Foxconn) and firm orders ($5.6M+) confirm the technology is real. However, the stock is used as a retail speculation vehicle via the AI narrative trade: price movements are amplified by forums and OTM calls. Advice: trade technical levels, ignore social noise, position size 1-2% max with strict stops below $4.80.

Thesis

POET is an asymmetric bet on AI photonic integration. The technology is validated (Lightwave Award, Mitsubishi/Semtech/Foxconn partnerships), the $300M+ cash eliminates survival risk, and the first orders ($5.6M+) are arriving. The optimal entry is the $5.00-$5.50 zone, corresponding to the current consolidation support. TP1 at $7.30 (median analyst target, +33%) on Q4 announcement or new order, TP2 at $8.50 (+54%) if 2026 revenue confirms the trajectory. The stop at $4.20 (below the pre-offering low) protects against a commercial failure scenario. Catalysts: Q4 results (March 30), Q1 2026 delivery start, 1.6T order announcement.