December 22, 2025 • Expert Analysis

BoJ Hawkish, Record Triple Witching & Bitcoin Magnet

Market enters "Risk-On" phase (Score 0.46) despite tensions. Active rotation towards "Old Economy" accelerates.

View Live Portfolio
12 min read Level: Expert AI Score: Bullish (0.46)
24,288
DAX Target
0.75%
BoJ Rate (+25bps)
$23.8B
BTC Options
67.49
Silver ($)

⚠️ What to Watch (Risk Monitor)

  • Bitcoin Options Dec 26: $23.8B expiring. "Gravitational" volatility towards $85k-100k expected.
  • Yen Carry Trade: Post-BoJ unwinding. Global liquidity pressure, rising US yields.
  • AI Bubble?: DeepSeek (China) questions ROI. Repricing risk for pure-plays.
  • Oil Price: WTI $56.52 (-23% YTD). Global demand weakness signal (China).

🎯 Weekly Strategy

  • Maintain 70-75% Invested: Risk-On confirmed (Score 0.46).
  • Freeze Positions Dec 24-26: Low liquidity.
  • Bitcoin Dec 27: Entry post-expiry if breakout >$92k confirmed.
  • Santa Rally: Monitor window Dec 24 - Jan 5 (Probability 65%).

📅 Critical Dates & Actions

Mon 23 Final pre-holiday positioning.
Tue 24 Close 1pm ET. Theoretical start of Santa Rally.
Wed 25 🛑 Closed (Xmas). BTC trades 24/7.
Thu 26 ⚠️ BTC Expiry ($23B). DO NOT TRADE morning.
Fri 27 Liquidity returns. Post-expiry opportunities.

🌍 Geopolitics & Commodities

Oil & Tensions

WTI $56.52 (-23% YTD). Lowest since 2021.

  • Venezuela: Trump imposes total blockade. "Skipper" tanker seizure. Major escalation.
  • Demand: China slowing, weighing on entire energy complex.
Action: Avoid Oil Majors, Prefer Defense.

Ratios: Metals & Crypto

Gold (YTD)
+60%
Silver (YTD)
+130%
BTC (YTD)
-9%

Gold/Silver Ratio: Freefall (Silver outperforms). "Debasement Trade" favors hard assets.

🇪🇺 Europe vs Mercosur

Deal delayed to Jan 2026. Farmers' protests (France/Italy) blocking the deal. Impact: Volatility in EU Agri-Food sector.

🎓 Advanced Education Section

1. Santa Rally: Myth or Reality?

Statistically, the S&P 500 gains on average +1.3% during the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 of January.

Why? Tax optimism, year-end bonuses, and crucially low liquidity allowing prices to drift up on low volume.
Action: Do not short this period. Follow the flow.

2. Options Expiry "Gravitational Pull"

On Dec 26, $23.8B of Bitcoin options expire. Major strike prices ($85k, $100k) act as magnets.

Market Makers must "hedge" positions by buying/selling the underlying to stay Delta Neutral. This compresses price. Once expired (Dec 26, 8am UTC), the magnet vanishes. Real movement often starts then.

⚖️ Year-End Management & Taxation

Last week to optimize your 2025 taxes (Tax Loss Harvesting).

Checklist Dec 23-31:

  • Sell Losers: Realize latent losses (e.g., China, Luxury) to offset taxable gains.
  • Avoid "Wash Sale": Do not buy back same ticker within 30 days (check local rules).
  • Rebalance: If asset exceeds target (e.g., Gold > 15%), trim profits and reallocate to underweighted classes (e.g., Cash for 2026).

🔮 Preview 2026: Themes & Sectors

✅ Favorite Sectors

  • Semiconductors (MU, NVDA): Pricing power intact.
  • EU Defense (RHM): Structural spending.
  • EU Banks: Attractive valuations.
  • Gold/Silver: Continued debasement.

❌ To Avoid

  • China Exposure (Luxury, Auto): Structural risk.
  • Unprofitable SaaS: High rates = death.
  • Consumer Discretionary: Imported Inflation (Tariffs).