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Why This Grade Is Provisional
72.5% of setups (58/80) haven't resolved yet. This 10-day window was defined by persistent Risk-Off pressure: VIX holding above 25, tariff escalation fear, and the SAP catastrophic flash crash (−28% on Mar 13) which alone accounts for 1 of the 12 stops. Stops resolve fast (1–3 days in panic regimes); TP1 targets need patience. The 45.5% raw HR on resolved positions projects a final grade of B to B+ once open positions mature — energy names (CVX, XOM, TTE, COP), defensives (ABBV, WMT, KR), and squeeze setups (HIMS, SQQQ) all trending positive.
Full Picture — All 80 Positions
Resolved (27.5%): 10 TP1 hits vs 12 stops. Top resolved: AMPX +82% (TP2), USO +25.6% (TP2), CF +23.4% (Mar 4 TP1), CF +17.8% (Mar 9 TP1), ADM +7.0% (TP1). Stops cluster in Mar 10 scan (5 stops) and SAP×4 appearances. Still open (72.5%): Average MtM of +1.5%. Of 58 open: 28 are positive (HIMS +13.9% near TP1, SQQQ +7.4%, GOLD +5.5%, EQNR +5.2%, TTE +5.4%), 12 flat (±1%), 18 negative (IOT −6.7%, SAP Mar 3/5 near stop). Projected final HR: 42–50% (Grade B range confirmed).
Maturity Analysis — Grade by Scan Age
Stops trigger in 1–3 days; TP1 targets need 5–15 days. Early scans (Mar 3–5) are the most mature but benefited from energy momentum — later scans still maturing.
| Scan | Age | TP1 | Stop | Open | MtM | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3 | 10d | 2 | 2 | 6 (60%) | +2.1% | IBRX TP1, XLE TP1 — SAP & VGK stopped, EWY near stop |
| Mar 4 | 9d | 3 | 1 | 6 (60%) | +4.8% | Best scan — AMPX +82%, CF TP1, CHRD TP1, EWG stopped |
| Mar 5 | 8d | 3 | 1 | 6 (60%) | +3.2% | USO +25.6%, ABBV TP1, LMT TP1 — EWH stopped, SAP near stop |
| Mar 6 | 7d | 1 | 0 | 9 (90%) | +1.3% | ADM TP1, XOM/EQNR/TTE trending positively |
| Mar 9 | 4d | 1 | 2 | 7 (70%) | +0.8% | CF TP1 +17.8% — ADBE & SAP stopped, HIMS near TP1 |
| Mar 10 | 3d | 0 | 5 | 8 (61%) | -1.4% | Worst scan — 13 setups, 5 stops, quality issue flagged |
| Mar 12 | 1d | 0 | 1 | 9 (90%) | +1.1% | Too early — SAP catastrophic stop (-28%), energy/defensive solid |
| Mar 13 | 0d | 0 | 0 | 10 (100%) | — | Published tonight — all open, too early to evaluate |
Retrospective History
| Period | Scans | Setups | TP1 HR | Grade | Best | Key Lesson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13–20 | 4 | 40 | 30% | C+ | NVDA +12% | Risk-On → Risk-Off transition caught setups off-guard |
| Feb 21–28 | 5 | 50 | 60% | B+ | GLD +8.2% | Commodity/defensive mix works in early Risk-Off |
| Mar 1–6 | 4 | 40 | 52% | B− | CF +17.8% | EU ETF pattern starts failing (EWG, EWJ, VGK) |
| Mar 3–13 | 8 | 80 | 45.5%* | B* | AMPX +82% | SAP blacklisted, Mar 10 quality flag, EU ETF cap enforced |
* Provisional — 72.5% positions still open
Full Recap — 80 Setups
Scan Mar 3, 2026 Risk-Off 2 TP1 / 10d
Scan Mar 4, 2026 Best Scan 3 TP1 — AMPX +82% 🏆
Scan Mar 5, 2026 Risk-Off 3 TP1 / USO +25.6%
Scan Mar 6, 2026 Risk-Off 1 TP1 / ADM +7%
Scan Mar 9, 2026 Early Risk-Off 1 TP1 / 2 Stops
Scan Mar 10, 2026 Quality Flag ⚠ 5 Stops
⚠ Quality control failure — 13 setup IDs (not 10). Micro-cap biotechs (EDIT, MRVI) padded an already risky anti-Risk-Off mean-reversion bet. EU ETF short positions (EWG, FEZ) into persistent tariff pressure = wrong directional call. This scan is flagged in the lessons section.
⚠ EDIT & MRVI are quality-flag extras — not part of the standard 10-setup format.
Scan Mar 12, 2026 Risk-Off SAP Catastrophic Stop
Scan Mar 13, 2026 Risk-Off All Open — Published Tonight
Just published — no outcome data yet. Will be evaluated in the next retrospective (Mar 20).
Strategy Analysis
Momentum / Expansion
32 setups — 6 TP1 / 4 Stops / 22 Open
The dominant and most successful category. Commodity momentum crushed it: AMPX +82%, USO +25.6%, CF×2 TP1. Energy names (XOM, EQNR, TTE, CVX) all trending +3–5%. Where momentum failed: tech (AMD stop, PLTR stop, LLY weak). Rule reinforced: momentum must align with regime sector bias — in Risk-Off, commodity > tech.
Short Squeeze Plays
14 setups — 2 TP1 / 2 Stops / 10 Open
AMPX was the star (+82% in 9 days). HIMS near TP1 at +13.9%. SQQQ +9% as inverse squeeze. The failures: MRVI micro-cap stop (-13.2%), EDIT stop (-8.7%) — both quality-flag extras from Mar 10. When squeeze setups are chosen from solid fundamentals, they work. Random micro-cap additions do not.
EU/Asia ETFs — Pattern Failure
12 setups — 0 TP1 / 4 Stops / 8 Open (all negative)
Consistent failure across all 8 scans. EWG×2 stopped, VGK stopped, EWY stopped, EWH stopped, EWJ near stop, FEZ near stop. The one exception: GLD held up. EU/Asia ETFs in a US-led Risk-Off regime driven by tariff fear = wrong call every time. Rule: 0–1 EU/Asia slot per scan max, only if local catalyst exists.
Defensive / Hedge
14 setups — 3 TP1 / 0 Stops / 11 Open
The cleanest strategy of the period: 3 TP1 hits (ABBV, LMT, ADM), zero stops, all open positions green. SH (ProShares Short SPY) hit near TP1 in multiple scans. KR +2.2%, WMT +3.7%, XLV +4.4%. In a sustained Risk-Off regime, defensive >> momentum. Should have over-allocated here.
Top 3 & Flop 3
Top Performers
American Battery Technology. Entry $5.50, current $10.01 — blew through TP1 ($7.70) and TP2 ($8.80) in 9 days. High short interest + fundamental catalyst = textbook squeeze. Held +82% even after partial profit-taking at TP2. The scanner's best absolute return in 3 months.
US Oil Fund. Entry $95.50, current $119.90 — hit TP1 ($105) and TP2 ($115) with room to spare. Perfect risk-off energy play: oil breakout with Brent above $95. Lesson: commodity ETFs outperform individual energy stocks in regime shifts because of lower idiosyncratic risk.
CF Industries picked twice across two scans — both hit TP1. Nitrogen fertilizers + food security tailwind in a macro tariff environment. This is the scanner's highest-conviction theme of the period. The second CF entry (Mar 9) came after the first TP1, proving the thesis hadn't played out fully yet.
Flop 3
The most costly repeated mistake of the period. SAP appeared in 4 consecutive scans. Mar 9 entry stopped (-8.2%). Mar 12 entry ($264) crashed -28.1% to $189.94 on Mar 13 — a catastrophic single-day move, likely a EUR→USD calculation error compounded by a real SAP correction. Permanently blacklisted from all future scans.
Adobe entered as Pre-Squeeze at $272, stopped at $249.32. Earnings came in and the stock dropped sharply. Rule added: no "pre-squeeze" setups within 5 days of earnings. ADBE had earnings in the window — this was a preventable stop if the earnings calendar had been checked at entry.
The Mar 10 scan had three critical errors: (1) mean reversion bet against a persistent tariff-driven Risk-Off trend, (2) 13 picks instead of 10 — quality diluted by micro-caps EDIT and MRVI, (3) EU ETF (EWG) taken a second time after already stopping in Mar 4. A repeat of the same mistake across two scans is a process failure.
Lessons & Adjustments
EU/Asia ETF Cap — 0–1 Per Scan
Enforced immediately. EU/Asia ETFs failed in every single scan of this period: EWG×2 stopped, VGK stopped, EWY stopped, EWH stopped, EWJ near stop, FEZ near stop. In a US tariff-driven Risk-Off regime, European markets underperform independently. Maximum 1 EU/Asia slot per scan, and only if a local market-specific catalyst exists (not just "Europe is cheap").
Pre-Earnings Exclusion Zone
New rule: No "Pre-Squeeze" or "Momentum Breakout" setups within 5 calendar days of earnings. ADBE's stop was entirely preventable. Adobe's earnings date was known — the setup should never have been entered. Adding earnings calendar check as mandatory pre-screening step for all setups.
Hard 10-Setup Limit
Non-negotiable going forward. Mar 10 had 13 setups. The 3 extras (EDIT, MRVI + 1) contributed 2 stops and 0 TP1 hits. More picks ≠ more alpha. It means diluted conviction, worse position sizing, and harder monitoring. 10 setups maximum, no exceptions. Quality threshold: score ≥ 80/100 required.
VIX > 28 = Full Defensive Tilt
Mar 10 failed because it tried mean reversion (long EU ETFs, long tech) when VIX was above 28 and the macro regime was clearly Risk-Off. New threshold: When VIX > 28, minimum 5/10 picks must be defensive, commodity, or short-hedge. Tech and EU ETF momentum are suspended until VIX < 22. Confirmed by Mar 3–6 results where the defensive-heavy scans vastly outperformed Mar 10.
Disclaimer
This retrospective is provided for educational and analytical purposes only. Past scanner performance does not guarantee future results. All setups carry risk. Entry prices shown are the scanner's published entries at time of publication — actual fills may differ. Current prices are approximate as of market close Mar 13, 2026. This is not financial advice. Never risk more than you can afford to lose. Always use your own judgment and risk management.
Grade methodology: Hit Rate calculated on fully resolved positions only (TP1 hit or stop hit). Open MtM is mark-to-market at current price vs entry. Provisional grade subject to revision in next retrospective when ≥60% of setups resolve.