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Why This Grade Is Provisional
69% of setups (48/70) have not yet reached their target or stop. Grading a scanner on 31% of resolved trades is like grading an exam after correcting only a third of the answers. The bias is structural: stops trigger in 1–2 days (market drops fast), while TP1 targets typically need 5–15 days (recoveries are gradual). This means the "completed" bucket is over-weighted with stops. A raw grade based solely on the 27% completed HR would be C, but this is misleading. The provisional grade B− accounts for the full picture: open positions averaging +0.4% MtM, 63% in positive or flat territory, and several approaching TP1.
Full Picture — All 70 Positions
Resolved (31%): 6 TP1 hits (avg +9.9%) vs 16 stops (avg −6.6%). The stops are real losses, mostly from Feb 24 EU/Asia ETFs and Mar 2 breakouts. Still open (69%): Average mark-to-market of +0.4%. Of the 48 open positions: 18 are positive (incl. NOW +14.1% at $0.66 from TP1, AMPX +14.6%, KOS +8%, DKNG +5.9%, SAP +3.5%, LMT +3%), 16 are flat (±1%), and 14 are negative (incl. IBRX −12%, AA −6.1%). Projected final HR: 37–43% (B− to B range). The definitive grade will be published when at least 60% of setups have resolved. Energy and squeeze strategies are clearly outperforming; EU/Asia ETFs and precious metals are the main drag.
Maturity Analysis — Grade by Scan Age
Newer scans haven't had time to resolve. Stops trigger faster than TP1 targets, biasing the "completed" hit rate downward.
| Scan | Age | TP1 | Stop | Open | MtM | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24 | 10d | 1 | 6 | 3 (30%) | -0.9% | Genuinely poor — EU/Asia ETFs failed hard |
| Feb 26 | 8d | 1 | 1 | 8 (80%) | +2.0% | Promising — NOW +14% near TP1, DKNG +6% |
| Feb 27 | 7d | 1 | 3 | 6 (60%) | 0.0% | Mixed — MRVL TP1, VGK/EWY/SLV stopped |
| Mar 2 | 4d | 0 | 4 | 6 (60%) | -2.4% | Too early — KOS +8% but 4 stops |
| Mar 3 | 3d | 1 | 1 | 8 (80%) | -1.6% | Too early — AAOI +19% TP1, SAP +3.5% |
| Mar 4 | 2d | 1 | 1 | 8 (80%) | +2.9% | Promising — AMPX +15%, CHRD +3% |
| Mar 5 | 1d | 1 | 0 | 9 (90%) | +1.2% | Too early — USO +14% TP1, 9/9 positive |
Projected Outcome
Based on current trajectories, ~11 additional setups are likely to hit TP1 (NOW, AMPX, KOS, LMT, CHRD, SAP, DKNG, MPC, GLD, CVX, DVN), while ~9 setups are at risk of being stopped (IBRX, AA, NAT, A, GLD-Mar2, EWY, XLV, EWH, TLT). Projected final HR: 37–43% (Grade B− to B). The Feb 24 scan remains the biggest drag, while the energy thesis and squeeze strategy are clearly validated across all scans. A definitive grade will be published once ≥60% of setups have resolved.
Full Recap — 70 Setups
Scan Feb 24, 2026 Early Risk-Off 10% HR — 10 days
Scan Feb 26, 2026 Early Risk-Off 10% HR — 8 days
Scan Feb 27, 2026 Risk-On 10% HR — 7 days
Scan Mar 2, 2026 Early Risk-Off 0% HR — 4 days
Scan Mar 3, 2026 Early Risk-Off 10% HR — 3 days
Scan Mar 4, 2026 Early Risk-Off 10% HR — 2 days
Scan Mar 5, 2026 Early Risk-Off 10% HR — 1 day
Strategy Analysis
Pre / Short Squeeze
7 setups — Win Rate 67% — Best strategy
The standout strategy of the period. WEAT hit TP1 (+6.8%), MRVL reached TP1 (+11.1%) on strong earnings momentum. NOW is just $0.66 short of TP1 at $124.34 (+14.1%). UBER and DKNG also in positive territory. Only EWJ (Mar 2) was stopped.
Momentum
25 setups — Win Rate 29% — Mixed results
Polarized results. AAOI hit TP1 (+19.1%) and CF (+9.1%) both performed well. But LITE (-5.5%), ICHR (-6.7%), SLV (-7.7%), AXTI (-14.6%) and MEOH (-9.7%) were all stopped. Energy momentum names (CVX, XOM, TTE) trending in the right direction.
Breakout
19 setups — Win Rate 20% — Disappointing
Only USO hit TP1 (+10%) with oil breakout thesis confirmed. Major stops on EWQ (-5.7%), VGK (-3.3%), ATI (-7.9%), ASML (-7.8%). European and semiconductor breakouts consistently failed in this regime. Energy and infrastructure breakouts (LMT, CHRD, DVN, MPC) still alive.
Defensive / Hedge / Safe Haven
19 setups — Win Rate 17% — Worst strategy
The paradox of this period: despite a persistent Early Risk-Off regime, defensive and safe haven picks performed poorly. AG (-11.3%) was the biggest disappointment. XLV, EWG, EWJ, ICLN all stopped from the Feb 24 scan. Only XLE (+3.4%) hit TP1. GLD in progress but below entry. The SH hedge (+2.4%) provides modest protection.
Market Regime Analysis
6 out of 7 scans were in Early Risk-Off regime, with one brief Risk-On signal on Feb 27. Key observations:
- European ETFs failed hard: EWG, EWJ, VGK, EWY, EWQ all stopped across multiple scans. The geographic diversification mandate hurt performance significantly.
- Energy was the standout sector: XLE (+3.4% TP1), USO (+14% TP1), CF (+9.1% TP1), CVX/DVN/MPC all positive. Geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions favored the sector.
- Tech squeeze plays worked: MRVL (+11.1% TP1), AAOI (+19.1% TP1) on strong earnings catalysts. But LITE and ICHR crashed — stock selection was critical.
- Precious metals underperformed: Despite Risk-Off, AG (-11.3% stop) and SLV (-7.7% stop) failed. GLD held but below entry. The safe haven thesis only partially validated.
Top 3 & Flop 3
Top 3 Setups
Entry $94, TP1 $112 reached on intraday high of $114.63. Fiber optics and AI data center momentum continued to drive the stock. The momentum expansion signal at score 89/100 was correctly identified. Note: the Mar 2 entry at $101.50 didn't hit TP1 ($135) — timing and entry levels matter.
Entry $95.50, TP1 $105 hit in just 1 day. Oil surged on geopolitical supply concerns with USO reaching $108.77. Score 93/100 was the highest of the period. The breakout thesis on energy was the scanner's best macro call.
Entry $81, TP1 $90 reached on earnings beat with strong AI networking guidance. Today's high of $93.40 nearly hit TP2 ($98). The pre-squeeze signal correctly identified the coiled spring before the catalyst.
Flop 3 Setups
Entry $41, stopped at $35. The semiconductor substrate maker collapsed after missing estimates. High-beta small-cap momentum names like AXTI are dangerous in Risk-Off regimes. The score of 88 was misleading — fundamental risk was underestimated.
Entry $31, stopped at $27.50. Ironic: AG was a top performer in the previous retro (+32%) but the entry on Mar 2 at $31 was chasing after a massive run-up. The safe haven thesis couldn't sustain momentum at elevated levels. Lesson: don't re-enter winners at stretched valuations.
Entry $56.50, stopped at $51. Methanol producer hit by a sudden demand outlook downgrade. The stock briefly touched a 52-week high of $57.73 before reversing hard (-12.7% today). Demonstrates the risk of momentum entries near all-time highs in volatile commodity names.
Lessons & Adjustments
What the Scanner Got Right
- Energy sector conviction: XLE, USO, CF all hit TP1. The scanner correctly identified the energy momentum theme across multiple scans.
- Tech squeeze timing: MRVL and AAOI were correctly identified before earnings catalysts. The pre-squeeze signal proved valuable.
- Commodity plays: WEAT (+6.8%) hit TP1 on wheat supply concerns. Agricultural commodities showed edge.
- Regime-aware hedging: SH (inverse S&P) and USO hedge positions showed value in Risk-Off context.
What the Scanner Got Wrong
- Geographic diversification penalty: 7 out of 16 stops were on EU/Asia ETFs (EWG, EWJ, VGK, EWY, EWQ, SLV). The forced diversification mandate is hurting performance in this regime.
- Feb 24 scan was disastrous: 6 stops out of 10 setups. Defensive and broad exposure picks underperformed badly. The scan overestimated the defensiveness of these positions.
- Re-entering past winners: AG was re-entered at $31 after a +32% run in the previous period — got stopped at -11.3%. Chasing momentum at extended levels is destructive.
- Small-cap momentum in Risk-Off: AXTI (-14.6%), IBRX (-12%), ICHR (-6.7%) — high-beta small caps are not appropriate in Risk-Off regimes despite strong technical signals.
- Precious metals thesis failed: Despite Risk-Off, AG and SLV were stopped. The scanner over-relied on the "safe haven" narrative without confirming actual price momentum.
Key Takeaway for Readers
This retrospective highlights a critical lesson: regime detection is necessary but not sufficient. The scanner correctly identified Early Risk-Off 6 out of 7 times, but the chosen defensive plays (EU/Asia ETFs, precious metals) didn't behave as expected. In 2026's market structure, "Risk-Off" no longer means automatic rotation into gold and European defensives — it means energy, agriculture commodities, and select US large-cap quality. The best performers (USO, CF, XLE, MRVL, AAOI) share a common trait: strong, specific catalysts rather than broad thematic exposure.
Proposed Adjustments for Next Scans
- Reduce EU/Asia ETF allocation: Drop from mandatory 2 EU + 1 Asia to optional. Only include if technical setup is truly A+.
- Increase energy weighting: Energy momentum has been the most reliable signal for 3 consecutive retros. Allocate 3+ energy names per scan.
- Favor squeeze over momentum: Pre/Short Squeeze hit rate of 67% vs Momentum 29%. Increase squeeze strategy weight.
- Avoid chasing past winners: Implement a "cooling-off" filter — if a ticker was in the top 3 of the previous retro, require a pullback of at least 10% before re-entry.
- Tighter screening for small caps in Risk-Off: Require minimum $5B market cap in Risk-Off regime, or exclude entirely.
- Stop loss recalibration: The 6.6% average stop loss seems appropriate, but Feb 24 stops on ETFs (XLV, EWG, EWJ) were too tight. Use 2x ATR for ETFs.
Retrospective History
| Date | Period | Grade | HR TP1 | Avg P&L | Best Pick | Scans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Feb 24 – Mar 5 | B- (prov.) | 27.3%* | -0.4% | AAOI +19.1% | 7 (70 setups, 69% open) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Feb 15 – Feb 27 | B+ | 50% | +8.8% | ACMR +147% | 7 (70 setups) |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Feb 10 – Feb 19 | B+ | 48% | +6.2% | ACMR +120% | 5 (50 setups) |
Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. The scanner retrospective is an educational tool that evaluates the performance of algorithmic screening signals. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All prices are as of market close on March 6, 2026. Entry prices are midpoints of the ranges published in each scan. P&L calculations are mark-to-market and may differ from actual execution prices. "In progress" setups may still hit their target or stop levels. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data sources: MarketWatch Gateway (real-time quotes), Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR. Scanner methodology detailed in each daily scan article.