SCANNER
Energy Dominance & Broad Risk-Off — Monday, March 23, 2026
10 A+ Setups
Early Risk-Off
Regime
90.1 / 100
Avg Score
$98.09 (+2.7%)
WTI
99.50
DXY
100%
New Tickers
Regime score 0.44. Strategy mode Early Risk-Off (adjusted: short squeeze excluded per policy). Working weights: Momentum 40%, Breakout 35%, Pullback 25%. Friday’s session confirmed the defensive rotation: SPX −1.51%, NASDAQ −2.01%, Russell 2000 −2.26%. Global equities hammered: Nikkei −3.38%, DAX −2.01%, CAC −1.82%, FTSE −1.44%. WTI crude surged +2.66% to $98.09, approaching the psychologically critical $100 level. DXY remains pinned below 100 at 99.50. Treasury yields rose sharply: 10Y +11bps to 4.39%, 30Y +11bps to 4.96%. Gold corrected −2.47% to $4,492 after recent highs. Silver −4.78% but structural bull case intact. The energy sector remains the clear leader in this regime with Brent at $106.77 (+2.88%).
Suite aux rétrospectives (notes C+, B+, B−, B — cumulative lessons across 4 retros), we have applied the following adjustments: (1) Short Squeeze strategy fully excluded (policy decision 20/03/2026). (2) Energy continues to be the top-performing sector across all retros — we double down here with 6 energy names. (3) EU/Asia exposure via ETFs only (individual EU/Asia stocks underperformed in retros B− and B). (4) Commodity ETFs (USO, DBA) added as direct plays on the weak-dollar thesis. (5) WTI at $98 approaching $100 is a multi-year catalyst for E&P names. (6) All 30 portfolio positions are occupied — only high-conviction additions warranted for rotation. 100% new tickers vs prior scan.
This scan is heavily concentrated in energy (6/10 names) reflecting the dominant theme: WTI approaching $100, DXY below 100, and OPEC+ maintaining supply discipline. Diversification achieved through commodity ETFs (USO, DBA) and regional ETF (EWJ for APAC exposure). European energy represented by EQNR (Equinor, Norway). Canadian energy via SU (Suncor). All 10 tickers are 100% new vs the March 20 scan — complete rotation.
| # | Ticker | Name | Price | Chg | Score | Strategy | Region |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | $60.71 | +1.9% | 93 | Momentum | 🇺🇸 US |
| 2 | SM | SM Energy | $30.04 | +8.3% | 92 | Momentum | 🇺🇸 US |
| 3 | EOG | EOG Resources | $138.73 | −0.1% | 91 | Breakout | 🇺🇸 US |
| 4 | VLO | Valero Energy | $239.86 | −0.9% | 90 | Breakout | 🇺🇸 US |
| 5 | CTRA | Coterra Energy | $33.97 | +0.2% | 90 | Momentum | 🇺🇸 US |
| 6 | EQNR | Equinor ASA | $41.60 | +2.7% | 91 | Momentum | 🇳🇴 EU |
| 7 | SU | Suncor Energy | $63.71 | +0.6% | 89 | Breakout | 🇨🇦 CA |
| 8 | USO | US Oil Fund ETF | $121.43 | +3.5% | 89 | Momentum | 📊 ETF |
| 9 | DBA | Invesco DB Agriculture | $26.85 | −0.4% | 88 | Breakout | 📊 ETF |
| 10 | EWJ | iShares MSCI Japan | $81.20 | −3.4% | 88 | Pullback | 🇯🇵 APAC |
Occidental Petroleum surged to a new 52-week high at $61.37 on Friday, fueled by WTI approaching $100 and an HSBC upgrade to Buy with a $59 target (already exceeded). The Permian Basin pure-play trades at a forward PE of 25.1x but benefits from massive Berkshire Hathaway backing (26% stake). OXY’s carbon capture business (1PointFive) provides ESG optionality. With Brent at $106.77, OXY’s cash flow generation is exceptional. The stock has rallied 74.6% from its 52-week low of $34.78, yet volume confirms institutional accumulation at 25M shares (vs 20-day avg). Price is well above both SMA50 ($48.39) and SMA200 ($44.69), confirming strong trend.
SM Energy exploded +8.3% on Friday after JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight with a $40 target — implying 33% upside from current levels. The Permian/Midland basin E&P trades at a remarkably cheap forward PE of 5.9x with a 2.95% dividend yield. At $30.04, the stock has surged 72% from its 52-week low of $17.45 but remains 7% below its 52wH of $32.26. Volume was explosive at 12.1M shares. The buy signal triggered on March 13 at $25.88 has already gained +16%. With WTI near $100, SM’s production leverage (low-cost Permian acreage) translates directly into outsized cash flow generation. Price trades 40% above SMA50 ($21.53) — momentum is extreme.
EOG Resources hit a fresh 52-week high at $140.92 on Friday — a textbook breakout. The premier independent E&P ($75.3B mcap) is considered the “best operator” in the US shale space with lowest breakeven costs, multi-basin diversification (Permian, Eagle Ford, Utica), and disciplined capital returns. Forward PE at 12.1x with a 2.94% dividend yield. The stock has gained 36.6% from its 52wH vs 52wL range. Buy signal triggered January 13 at $106.75 — already +30%. Volume at 15M validates the breakout. Both SMA50 ($117.90) and SMA200 ($114.97) are well below price, confirming trend strength.
Valero Energy trades near its 52-week high of $244.74, up an astonishing 142% from its $99 low. The world’s largest independent refiner benefits from widening crack spreads as crude oil prices rise faster than refined product costs can adjust. Forward PE 16.8x with 1.5% dividend. Buy signal triggered February 3 at $184.36 — already +30.1%. The stock is 19.5% above SMA50 ($200.70) and 43.5% above SMA200 ($167.20), confirming a powerful multi-month uptrend. Volume at 19.6M shows sustained institutional demand. Refining margins expand when crude rises due to inventory gains on stored crude.
Coterra Energy trades just 1.8% below its 52-week high of $34.59, benefiting from dual exposure to both oil (Permian Basin) and natural gas (Marcellus Shale). Forward PE 12.5x with diversified revenue streams. Buy signal triggered March 11 at $31.33, already +8.4%. The stock is 16% above SMA50 ($29.30) and 30.6% above SMA200 ($26.00). Volume at 11M is healthy. With WTI near $100 and natural gas recovering, Coterra’s balanced portfolio benefits from both commodity trends. The company has been a consistent capital returner with buybacks and dividends.
Equinor, Norway’s state-controlled energy giant, is trading near its 52-week high of $41.84 after surging +2.7% on Friday. UBS upgraded from Sell to Neutral on March 20, and TD Cowen raised its target to $25. The stock has nearly doubled from its 52wL of $21.41, driven by Brent crude at $106.77 and Europe’s energy security premium. EQNR is 46.5% above SMA50 ($28.40) and 63.1% above SMA200 ($25.50) — a parabolic move. The company is Europe’s largest offshore operator and a major LNG supplier. Norwegian government ownership (67%) provides stability and dividend commitment.
Suncor Energy trades just 0.9% below its 52-week high of $64.27, representing a breakout setup at the top of a multi-month rally. Canada’s largest integrated oil sands producer has surged 107% from its $30.79 low. Buy signal triggered March 4 at $57.33, already +11.1%. Forward PE 18.4x reflects the oil sands premium (long-duration reserves). The stock is 18% above SMA50 ($54.00) and 44.5% above SMA200 ($44.10). Suncor benefits uniquely from WTI near $100 as oil sands have high breakevens but massive leverage above breakeven. The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion has opened new Pacific export markets.
USO is the most direct way to play the WTI approaching $100 thesis. The ETF surged +3.54% on Friday as crude hit $98.09 (+2.66%). USO is a staggering 44.9% above SMA50 ($83.80) and 60.4% above SMA200 ($75.70), reflecting the parabolic move in oil prices. Buy signal from March 4 at $90.63 has already gained +34%. Volume at 48.5M shares is massive, confirming broad institutional and retail participation. With OPEC+ maintaining supply discipline, Middle East geopolitical risk persistent, and DXY below 100 weakening the dollar (bullish for USD-denominated commodities), the $100 WTI level is the next major target. The oil market is in backwardation, which benefits front-month futures-based ETFs like USO.
DBA is a diversified agriculture commodity ETF tracking futures on corn, soybeans, wheat, sugar, cocoa, coffee, cattle, and hogs. The fund received a fresh buy signal on March 18 at $26.68. Price is 3.3% above SMA50 ($26.00) and 1.7% above SMA200 ($26.40) — a rare golden cross setup with moderate extension. The agricultural thesis is driven by: (1) weak dollar boosting USD-denominated commodities, (2) weather disruptions in South American growing regions, (3) rising food inflation globally, and (4) low inventory-to-use ratios across major grains. DBA has relatively low volatility compared to single-crop plays, making it a measured way to gain commodity exposure.
EWJ dropped −3.39% on Friday as the Nikkei plunged −3.38% (its worst day in weeks), creating a pullback entry on a structurally bullish trend. The ETF remains above its SMA200 ($81.10), right at support. The Nikkei at 53,372 is still up significantly on the year. Japan benefits from: (1) corporate governance reforms (Tokyo Stock Exchange mandating capital efficiency), (2) yen weakness boosting exporters, (3) Warren Buffett’s increased Japanese trading house stakes, and (4) AI capex benefiting firms like Tokyo Electron and Advantest. This is a mean reversion play after a sharp single-day sell-off on a structurally bullish backdrop.
| Ticker | Score | Strategy | Entry | Stop | TP1 | TP2 | R/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OXY | 93 | Momentum | $59.50-61.00 | $56.00 | $66.00 | $72.00 | 1:1.9 |
| SM | 92 | Momentum | $29.00-30.50 | $26.50 | $34.00 | $38.00 | 1:2.1 |
| EOG | 91 | Breakout | $136.00-139.00 | $131.00 | $148.00 | $158.00 | 1:1.8 |
| EQNR | 91 | Momentum | $40.50-42.00 | $38.00 | $46.00 | $50.00 | 1:2.0 |
| VLO | 90 | Breakout | $235.00-240.00 | $222.00 | $258.00 | $275.00 | 1:1.7 |
| CTRA | 90 | Momentum | $33.00-34.00 | $31.00 | $37.50 | $40.00 | 1:1.8 |
| SU | 89 | Breakout | $62.00-64.00 | $58.50 | $69.00 | $75.00 | 1:1.7 |
| USO | 89 | Momentum | $118.00-122.00 | $112.00 | $132.00 | $140.00 | 1:1.7 |
| DBA | 88 | Breakout | $26.50-27.00 | $25.50 | $28.50 | $30.00 | 1:1.6 |
| EWJ | 88 | Pullback | $79.00-82.00 | $76.00 | $87.00 | $92.00 | 1:1.7 |
Energy super-concentration (6/10): This is a deliberate thematic bet on the WTI $100 thesis. Diversification is achieved through different sub-sectors: upstream E&P (SM, EOG, CTRA), integrated (OXY, SU, EQNR), and refining (VLO). Two commodity ETFs (USO, DBA) provide direct commodity exposure. One contrarian play (EWJ) offers mean-reversion optionality on a sharp Japan sell-off. Average score 90.1 — the highest of any scan this week. All R/R ratios ≥ 1:1.6. 100% new tickers vs prior scan.
Based on 4 retrospectives (Feb 20, Feb 28, Mar 6, Mar 13), cumulative scanner performance:
All 30 portfolio slots are currently occupied. New entries from this scan are contingent on rotation — exiting weakest performers to make room. Under the aggressive rotation policy, up to 2 exits per day are permitted. The 10 setups presented here represent the highest-conviction replacement candidates if rotation triggers on Monday’s open (15h30 Paris).
The scanner evaluates 6 macro components: VIX level, SPX trend, DXY direction, TLT (bond safety), credit spreads (HYG/LQD ratio), and liquidity conditions. Each scores 0–1. The weighted composite determines the regime: Risk-On (≥0.7), Neutral (0.5–0.7), Early Risk-Off (0.3–0.5), or Risk-Off (<0.3). Current score: 0.44 = Early Risk-Off. This regime favors defensive momentum, energy, and commodity plays over growth/tech.
Three complementary DSL strategies scan the market: (1) Oversold Bounce: RSI14 < 35 with volume > 1.5x average. (2) Momentum Expansion: price above SMA20, volume > 2x average, RSI 50–75. (3) Breakout Squeeze: price above SMA50 with ATR14 > 1.2x ATR28. Results are supplemented with RunAutoScreener (gateway’s adaptive screener) and manual sector analysis for geographical diversification. Short Squeeze strategy is permanently excluded (policy decision March 20, 2026).
Each candidate is scored 0–100 on four equally-weighted factors: (1) Technical (25%): trend alignment, RSI, volume confirmation, proximity to support/resistance. (2) Momentum (25%): relative strength vs sector and market, buy signal recency. (3) Risk (25%): R/R ratio, stop distance, volatility profile, dilution check. (4) Conviction (25%): catalyst quality, analyst actions, insider activity, institutional flow. Bonus: insider buys +5pts, cluster buys +10pts.
Only setups scoring ≥85/100 qualify for the Top 10. Additional filters: (1) Confluence: ≥3 confirming signals must align. (2) Liquidity: daily volume > $10M for stocks, > $50M for ETFs. (3) R/R: minimum 1:1.5 risk/reward ratio. (4) Anti-doublon: ticker must NOT be in current open positions (30 slots full). (5) Anti-dilution: SEC filings check for S-3, warrants, ATM programs. (6) Diversification: min 5 US + 1 EU + 1 APAC + 2 ETFs.
Final ranking by composite score. Cross-validation against retrospective lessons: energy and defensive strategies consistently outperform in Early Risk-Off regimes (confirmed across all 4 retros). SAP −28% crash lesson: individual EU stocks avoided in favor of ETFs. AMPX +82% lesson: momentum on high-conviction catalysts works. Sector correlation checked to avoid over-concentration in identical risk factors. Entry/stop/target levels set using support/resistance, ATR-based stops, and Fibonacci extensions.
MarketWatch Gateway (MCP): GetMarketOverview, RunAutoScreener, RunScreener, QueryData (quote, trading_signals, social_sentiment, capital_flow, insider_transactions). Yahoo Finance for real-time prices. Analyst upgrades from Bloomberg/Reuters feeds. SEC filings for dilution checks. All data as of March 20, 2026 close.
This scanner output is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past scanner performance (retrospective grades C+ to B+) does not guarantee future results. All setups carry risk of total loss. The scanner is algorithmic and may produce false signals. Always conduct your own due diligence before entering any trade. Position sizing, risk management, and portfolio allocation are the reader’s responsibility. Market Watch is not a registered investment advisor. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Scanner data sourced from MarketWatch Gateway, Yahoo Finance, and public filings. Generated March 20, 2026 at 23:00 CET for trading session Monday, March 23, 2026. Prices as of Friday close.