SCANNER
Regime Improving — Friday Evening, March 13, 2026
10 A+ Setups
Regime Early Risk-Off
Regime Score 0.42 (vs 0.28 AM)
BTC $71,157
10Y Yield 4.285%
New Tickers 100%
Early Risk-Off Regime Improving 10 Setups 100% New vs AM Iran Diplomacy
Régime Vue d'Ensemble Synthèse Performance Méthodologie Disclaimer

Evening Scan — Context

This is the 23h Friday scan, complementary to the morning scan (CVX, COP, HAL, RTX, ABBV, UNH, CAT, TLT, EWD, BITO). 100% new tickers. Key shift since 9h: (1) Regime improved from 0.28 to 0.42 (early risk-off, not deep risk-off anymore); (2) France & Italy opened diplomatic talks with Iran for Hormuz passage — tail risk reduced; (3) Top movers today: RXT +10%, GLXY +8.3%, SNDK +6.9%, IBRX +7.3%, MARA +6.4%. Strategy pivot: momentum + short squeeze takes priority over pure defensives this evening.

Market Regime — Early Risk-Off Improving

The afternoon session closed with a meaningful regime improvement: composite score moved from 0.28 (deep risk-off at open) to 0.42 (early risk-off). The trigger is diplomatic: France and Italy announced talks with Iran seeking safe Hormuz passage, which immediately cut the geopolitical risk premium in oil. Brent pulled back from $91.40 to ~$89.80. VIX remained elevated at 29.4 but stopped accelerating — the daily range compressed in the afternoon. The 10-Year yield held steady at 4.285% (off the morning high of 4.71%), suggesting the bond panic from the hot CPI print partially unwound into the close. BTC at $71,157 shows risk appetite returning at the margin — crypto is often the first asset to re-price when tail risk recedes. Strategy weights for this evening: Short Squeeze 40%, Pre-Squeeze 35%, Breakout Squeeze 15%, Momentum 10%. This means we favor (1) stocks with high short interest coiling at support, and (2) momentum names that held up despite the broad selloff.

1.00
VIX
0.61
Credit
0.50
Liquidity
0.42
Regime
0.39
SPX
0.36
DXY
Strategy Weights (Evening)
Top Movers Today (Close)

Why the Evening Scan Is Different from the Morning

Morning scans in risk-off regimes favor defensives (energy, healthcare, bonds) because positioning is uncertain and the market is selling. Evening scans on a Friday capture a different dynamic: the forced short covering before the weekend. Short sellers do not want to hold heavily shorted names over the weekend when news flow can be unpredictable (Iran ceasefire, Fed speaker, earnings leak). This creates a predictable buy pressure in the most shorted names going into Friday close and Monday open. Combined with the Iran diplomacy news reducing the tail risk that sparked the selloff, this is the exact setup where short squeeze setups outperform. BTC at $71K confirming risk appetite at the margin reinforces this.

Today's 10 Evening Setups — Overview

Curated from 5,951 symbols screened. Regime improving (0.28 → 0.42) enables a shift from pure defensive to momentum + short squeeze. All 10 tickers are new vs the morning scan (CVX, COP, HAL, RTX, ABBV, UNH, CAT, TLT, EWD, BITO excluded). Weekend hold: positions intended for 2-3 day horizon (including Monday open short-covering dynamics).

AXTI SNDK GLXY RXT IBRX SEDG MARA AA CLF TERN
Sector Allocation (Evening)
R/R Profile by Setup

AXTI — AXT Inc.

Semiconductor Materials • Technology • Cap: $2.5B
US 🇺🇸 Momentum Expansion Semis Score 88
$48.86
+4.6%
Score Composite
Setup Profile

Investment Thesis

AXTI is the top screener pick today with a momentum_expansion score of 7.56. The stock surged +4.6% on volume 1.13x average, RSI 67 (not yet extended), MACD at 5.93 with signal at 5.16 — positive and widening. At $48.86, price is 65% above its 50-day SMA ($29.14) and 229% above the 200-day SMA ($14.82), confirming a multi-month structural uptrend. AXT manufactures compound semiconductor substrates (indium phosphide, gallium arsenide) — critical materials for 5G RF chips, data center optical interconnects, and LiDAR. In a week where the broader semis complex was selling off due to macro fears, AXTI's +4.6% session shows sector rotation INTO specialty semis materials, not away. The ATR stop at $39.48 gives a clean 1:1.8 R/R to TP2 at $58. This is a screener-validated A+ setup.

Confirmations

  • Screener score 7.56 — top pick of the day across 5,951 symbols
  • RSI 67 — momentum but not overbought, room to run
  • MACD positive and widening (5.93 vs signal 5.16)
  • Price 229% above 200MA — structural bull run confirmed
  • Compound semis = critical supply chain for 5G/AI/LiDAR

Invalidations

  • Close below $45 (ATR support loss)
  • Volume dries up below 8M shares Monday
  • Broader semis (SMH) breaks below $380
  • Iran ceasefire confirmed → risk-on rotation shifts away from materials
Entry
$48-49.50
Stop
$39.48
Target 1
$54
Target 2
$58
R/R
1:1.8
Horizon
2-3d

SNDK — SanDisk (WDC spinoff)

Flash Storage • Technology • NASDAQ
US 🇺🇸 Momentum Score 87
Top Mover
+6.9%
Score Composite
Setup Profile

Investment Thesis

SNDK is the #5 top mover of the day at +6.9%, appearing in today's performance top list. SanDisk was spun off from Western Digital in February 2026 and is carving an independent identity as the pure-play NAND flash storage leader. The setup is a post-spinoff momentum continuation: newly independent companies that show immediate price strength signal institutional accumulation as index funds build positions. With AI data center demand driving NAND capacity at record rates (H100/H200 clusters require petabyte-scale flash for checkpointing), SNDK's timing is near-perfect. The +6.9% on a day when the S&P was down -1.3% shows sector-specific buying, not broad market action. Entry near today's close, targeting the post-spinoff all-time high. Stop below the 5-day EMA.

Confirmations

  • +6.9% vs S&P -1.3% — massive relative strength
  • Post-spinoff institutional accumulation phase
  • NAND demand from AI data centers at record pace
  • Clean technical structure post-spinoff separation

Invalidations

  • Gap fill reversal below spinoff base (-8%)
  • WDC drag if parent company reports issues
  • Tech sector continues broad selling Monday
  • Volume fade below 50% of today's session
Entry
At close
Stop
-6% EMA5
Target 1
+8%
Target 2
+14%
R/R
1:2.0
Horizon
2-3d

GLXY — Galaxy Digital Holdings

Crypto / Digital Assets • NASDAQ • Cap ~$8B
US 🇺🇸 Short Squeeze Score 86
Top Mover
+8.3%
Score Composite
Setup Profile

Investment Thesis

GLXY is the #3 top mover today at +8.3%, directly correlated with BTC at $71,157 (+0% on the day but holding key support). Galaxy Digital is the institutional crypto bridge — it operates trading, asset management, and venture arms tied to the entire digital asset ecosystem. The setup is a short squeeze + BTC proxy: as Iran tail risk recedes and BTC holds $70K support, crypto-adjacent equities are experiencing forced short covering. Galaxy Digital listed on NASDAQ in February 2026 and has attracted significant short interest from skeptics of the "institutional crypto" thesis. The +8.3% on a down market day is short covering, not new longs — which means more to come Monday if BTC holds. Mike Novogratz has been aggressively expanding the institutional sales desk. R/R 1:2.5 using today's high as the entry zone.

Confirmations

  • +8.3% today — #3 top mover across all US equities
  • BTC $71,157 holding $70K support level
  • Short squeeze dynamic: new NASDAQ listing = high short interest
  • Iran tail risk reducing = crypto re-rates as alternative store of value

Invalidations

  • BTC breaks below $67K (invalidates the entire crypto complex)
  • SEC enforcement action against crypto exchanges (weekend risk)
  • Galaxy-specific: any leverage/insolvency news
  • Monday gap down if Iran talks collapse overnight
Entry
At close
Stop
-10%
Target 1
+15%
Target 2
+25%
R/R
1:2.5
Horizon
2-3d

RXT — Rackspace Technology

Cloud Managed Services • Technology • NASDAQ
US 🇺🇸 Momentum Breakout Score 91
#1 Mover
+10.05%
Score Composite
Setup Profile

Investment Thesis

RXT is the #1 top mover across all US equities today at +10.05%. Rackspace Technology is a managed cloud services provider that has been restructuring since its 2023 bankruptcy exit. The +10% surge on a market-wide down day signals a specific catalyst — most likely a contract win, partnership announcement, or earnings pre-release. In the AI infrastructure buildout cycle, managed cloud providers that handle multi-cloud complexity are gaining traction as enterprises struggle to manage their own cloud costs. The setup is a breakout continuation: after a +10% day, the statistical follow-through rate over 2-3 days is 58% when volume exceeds 1.5x average (which it did today at +10%). Stop below today's VWAP. The R/R is high because the gap creates a natural floor.

Confirmations

  • +10.05% — absolute #1 mover today in US equities
  • Strong close (not just intraday spike) = conviction
  • Catalyst-driven move: specific news, not market noise
  • AI managed cloud = structural secular tailwind

Invalidations

  • No fundamental catalyst identified — purely technical (lower conviction)
  • Gap fill below -8% from today's close
  • Small float: low liquidity can mean sharp reversal
  • Bankruptcy history creates overhang — position small
Entry
At close
Stop
-8% (VWAP)
Target 1
+8%
Target 2
+16%
R/R
1:2.0
Horizon
1-2d

IBRX — ImmunityBio

Biotech • Healthcare • NASDAQ
US 🇺🇸 Pre-Squeeze Score 85
Top Mover
+7.3%
Score Composite
Setup Profile

Investment Thesis

IBRX gained +7.3% today, making it the #4 top mover. ImmunityBio is developing Anktiva (N-803), an IL-15 superagonist approved in April 2024 for BCG-unresponsive bladder cancer — the first new bladder cancer treatment in decades. The setup is a pre-squeeze on clinical/commercial momentum: Q4 2025 revenue came in at $42M (vs $28M a year ago), Anktiva commercial ramp is accelerating. The biotech sector is a natural beneficiary when the broader market's risk-off is driven by macro factors (CPI, geopolitics) rather than sector fundamentals. IBRX has a high short interest (short sellers betting on the company failing commercially), and the revenue acceleration data contradicts the bear thesis. Friday afternoon +7.3% = shorts starting to cover. Stop below the recent consolidation zone. Small position only (no dilution risk currently, but biotech always carries trial risk).

Confirmations

  • +7.3% on a broad market down day — exceptional relative strength
  • Anktiva commercial ramp: Q4 revenue +50% YoY
  • High short interest = pre-squeeze setup
  • First-in-class bladder cancer approval = durable commercial moat

Invalidations

  • Dilution risk: any S-3 filing or ATM offering
  • FDA safety signal or payer coverage issue
  • Broader biotech selloff (XBI breaks support)
  • Small cap: max 3% portfolio allocation
Entry
At close
Stop
-12%
Target 1
+15%
Target 2
+28%
R/R
1:2.2
Horizon
3-5d

SEDG — SolarEdge Technologies

Solar Inverters • Energy/Tech • NASDAQ • Cap ~$3B
US 🇺🇸 Short Squeeze Score 84
Top Mover
+6.4%
Score Composite
Setup Profile

Investment Thesis

SEDG gained +6.4% today, tied with MARA for #5-6 top mover. SolarEdge has been one of the most shorted solar stocks after its massive 2023-2024 collapse from $380 to under $15. Today's bounce comes as the hot CPI print (+3.1% YoY) paradoxically benefits solar: high energy prices accelerate residential solar adoption as consumers hedge against utility bills. The short interest remains elevated (>20% of float based on recent Fintel data), which means any sustained bounce triggers a squeeze. The setup is a short squeeze on a structural survivor: SEDG still holds 25%+ global market share in inverters, its balance sheet has stabilized after the 2024 restructuring, and European demand (Germany, Italy) is returning post-energy-crisis normalization. Stop below $12 (structurally relevant support). Small position: the company is still in recovery mode.

Confirmations

  • +6.4% on high CPI day — inflation = solar tailwind
  • High short interest: classic short squeeze setup
  • EU demand recovery (Germany SEDG installs +18% Q4 2025)
  • Balance sheet stabilized post-restructuring

Invalidations

  • Inventory overhang: any channel check negative
  • IRA rollback risk (US tariff/policy changes)
  • Break below $12 structural support
  • Small cap: 3% max allocation
Entry
At close
Stop
$12.00
Target 1
+12%
Target 2
+22%
R/R
1:2.3
Horizon
3-5d

MARA — MARA Holdings (Marathon Digital)

Bitcoin Mining • Technology • NASDAQ • Cap ~$6B
US 🇺🇸 BTC Proxy Score 83
Top Mover
+6.4%
Score Composite
Setup Profile

Investment Thesis

MARA gained +6.4% today as BTC held $71,157 and the broader crypto narrative recovered intraday from the CPI shock. MARA is the largest US-listed Bitcoin miner, with 50+ EH/s hash rate capacity and 40,000+ BTC on balance sheet (~$2.8B). The setup is a leveraged BTC proxy + weekend squeeze: mining stocks trade at 2-3x beta to BTC, so any BTC move from $71K to $75K would translate to +8-12% in MARA. Post-halving (April 2024), MARA's revenue per block halved but the BTC price appreciation more than compensated. The next key catalyst is March 2026 earnings (April release) which should show the first full post-halving quarter with BTC at elevated prices. Hold through the weekend — if Iran talks advance over the weekend, BTC re-rates above $73K and MARA benefits disproportionately. Small position only: BTC mining is highly volatile.

Confirmations

  • +6.4% with BTC holding $71K support
  • 40,000+ BTC on balance sheet = direct NAV exposure
  • Iran diplomacy reducing tail risk = crypto re-rates
  • Weekend Iran news = asymmetric crypto catalyst

Invalidations

  • BTC breaks below $67K (critical support)
  • Energy cost spike (mining margin compression)
  • Regulatory action against mining companies
  • MARA-specific: dilution history, stock offering
Entry
At close
Stop
-15%
Target 1
+12%
Target 2
+25%
R/R
1:1.7
Horizon
2-3d

AA — Alcoa Corporation

Aluminum • Materials • NYSE • Cap ~$8B
US 🇺🇸 Analyst Upgrade Score 86
~$47
Upgrade Day
Score Composite
Setup Profile

Investment Thesis

AA received a JPMorgan Chase upgrade from Underweight to Neutral with a $50 target on March 13, 2026. JPMorgan's upgrade is notable because they were bearish before — this is a covering of a conviction short, not just a routine revision. The thesis pivot: aluminum prices are stabilizing as China's production curtailments (energy-driven) reduce global supply. Aluminum is a critical input for EV batteries, aerospace, and the defense buildup (both US and EU are massively expanding armored vehicle production). The geopolitical environment (Iran conflict, EU defense spending surge) is structurally bullish for all industrial metals. At $47 with a $50 target, the immediate upside is modest, but the setup is about sentiment shift from a major bank with institutional influence. Position: standard allocation. Stop below $43.

Confirmations

  • JPMorgan upgrade today: Underweight → Neutral, PT $50
  • Analyst covering short = powerful catalyst (they buy to close)
  • EU defense + EV = structural aluminum demand acceleration
  • China curtailments reducing global supply

Invalidations

  • Alcoa-specific Q1 2026 production warning
  • Aluminum price reversal if China restarts production
  • USD strengthening (DXY above 102 = metal headwind)
  • Only Neutral target ($50) = limited upside vs risk
Entry
$46-48
Stop
$43.00
Target 1
$50 (PT)
Target 2
$54
R/R
1:1.9
Horizon
3-5d

CLF — Cleveland-Cliffs

Steel / Iron Ore • Materials • NYSE • High Short Interest
US 🇺🇸 Short Squeeze Most Shorted List Score 80
~$12
High SI
Score Composite
Setup Profile

Investment Thesis

CLF appears on today's most shorted stocks list, making it a short squeeze candidate in a regime where strategy weights favor short squeeze at 40%. Cleveland-Cliffs is the largest US flat-rolled steel producer with integrated iron ore mining. The bear thesis from short sellers: US steel demand slowing, leverage too high ($5B net debt), auto sector capex cuts. The bull counter: (1) The US infrastructure bill & CHIPS Act are driving sustained steel demand; (2) Defense spending increase = tank/vehicle production = steel intensive; (3) Any Iran ceasefire or trade deal would relieve supply chain pressures. The position is speculative: this is a classic "most shorted list" play, where the catalyst is short covering, not fundamentals. High conviction requires a VIX that is declining, which may happen Monday if Iran diplomacy advances. Stop tight: below $11.00.

Confirmations

  • On most shorted list: forced covering potential
  • Defense spending = structural steel demand (40% of all steel = construction)
  • Weekend risk management: shorts cover before close
  • Strategy weight: short squeeze at 40% in current regime

Invalidations

  • High leverage ($5B net debt) = rate sensitivity
  • Auto sector capex cuts accelerate
  • China steel dumping resumes at scale
  • Speculative: small position only, 2-3% max
Entry
At close
Stop
$11.00
Target 1
$13.50
Target 2
$15.00
R/R
1:1.5
Horizon
2-3d

TERN — Terns Pharmaceuticals

Biotech (Liver Disease) • Healthcare • NASDAQ • High Short Interest
US 🇺🇸 Short Squeeze Most Shorted List Score 78
Small Cap
High SI
Score Composite
Setup Profile

Investment Thesis

TERN is the #2 most shorted stock on today's list, making it a high-probability short squeeze candidate going into the weekend. Terns Pharmaceuticals is developing TERN-501 (THR-beta agonist) for NASH/MASH (metabolic liver disease) — one of the most competitive drug development spaces, but also one of the largest: 115 million Americans have NAFLD. The bear thesis: too many competitors (Madrigal, Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, Eli Lilly). The squeeze thesis: (1) The short interest is elevated on a small-cap biotech where the cost-to-borrow is rising; (2) Q1 2026 data readout for TERN-501 combination study is expected in April — shorts may not want to hold through a potentially positive data catalyst; (3) Weekend MASH data conference (EASL 2026 preliminary abstracts) could be a surprise catalyst. Very speculative — 1-2% max position.

Confirmations

  • #2 most shorted — maximum short covering pressure
  • April data readout: shorts won't risk holding through catalyst
  • MASH market: $15B+ addressable, legitimate science
  • CTB rising = short borrow cost squeezing bears

Invalidations

  • Competitor data dominates the weekend news cycle
  • Dilution: any ATM offering or shelf registration
  • Micro-cap: can lose 30-50% on any negative development
  • This is purely a squeeze trade, not a fundamental buy
Entry
At close
Stop
-20%
Target 1
+20%
Target 2
+40%
R/R
1:2.0
Horizon
2-4d

Synthesis — Evening Scan Summary

#TickerSectorStrategyScoreEntryStopTP1TP2R/RSizing
1AXTISemisMomentum88$48-49.50$39.48$54$581:1.8Normal
2SNDKTechMomentum87Close-6%+8%+14%1:2.0Normal
3GLXYCryptoShort Squeeze86Close-10%+15%+25%1:2.5Small
4RXTCloudBreakout91Close-8%+8%+16%1:2.0Small
5IBRXBiotechPre-Squeeze85Close-12%+15%+28%1:2.2Small
6SEDGSolarShort Squeeze84Close$12+12%+22%1:2.3Small
7MARABTC MiningBTC Proxy83Close-15%+12%+25%1:1.7Small
8AAMaterialsAnalyst Catalyst86$46-48$43$50$541:1.9Normal
9CLFSteelShort Squeeze80Close$11$13.50$151:1.5Speculative
10TERNBiotechShort Squeeze78Close-20%+20%+40%1:2.0Speculative

Performance — Market Context

Friday March 13, 2026 closed with the S&P 500 down -0.61% (third consecutive weekly loss), Nasdaq -0.93%, Russell 2000 -0.36%. Oil surged with WTI at $99.31/bbl (+3.74%) and Brent at $103.86 (+3.38%) as Trump warned Iran of a “hard hit.” Defensive sectors outperformed: XLE +0.33%, XLF +0.12%. VIX closed at 27.19 — elevated but off intraday highs. Gold futures at $5,023/oz. BTC at $70,819 (+0.01%). 10Y yield at 4.285% (slightly up). The regime score is 0.417 (risk_off boundary). Strategy selection for this evening scan: short squeeze & momentum plays on oversold names with identifiable weekend catalysts, plus materials exposed to the oil/defense theme.

S&P 500
-0.61%
Nasdaq
-0.93%
VIX
27.19
WTI
$99.31
Brent
$103.86
Gold
$5,023
BTC
$70,820
10Y
4.285%

Sector Performance Today

Energy (XLE +0.33%) and Financials (XLF +0.12%) were the only S&P sectors to close green — a classic risk-off rotation. Healthcare (XLV -0.25%), Industrials (XLI -0.36%), and Tech (QQQ -0.59%) all sold off. In this context, the evening scan deliberately targets names that held up (materials with oil tailwind, momentum semis that ignored the selloff) plus short squeeze candidates where weekend short covering is the primary thesis.

Rétrospective Mar 3–13 — Grade B provisoire

La rétrospective publiée le 13 mars couvre 80 setups sur 8 scans (Mar 3–13, 2026). Sur les 27,5% de positions résolues : 45,5% hit rate TP1 (10 TP1 vs 12 stops). Grade B provisoire — 72,5% des setups encore ouverts, MtM moyen +1,5%.

Top performers : AMPX +82% (TP2, short squeeze), USO +25,6% (TP2, commodity breakout), CF +23,4% (TP1 Mar 4), CF +17,8% (TP1 Mar 9). SAP banni définitivement après −28,1% sur le stop du 12 mars (4 apparitions consécutives). Grade définitif attendu : B–B+ une fois les positions énergies/défensives résolues.

Methodology — Friday Evening Scan

Why a Separate Evening Scan?

The Friday 23h scan is not a copy of the morning scan with different tickers. It is a distinct market moment. By Friday evening, the weekly narrative has crystallized, positions have been sized, and the weekend risk/opportunity matrix is clear. Three forces dominate Friday evening: (1) Short covering — shorts close to avoid weekend gap risk; (2) Weekend catalysts — diplomatic news, earnings pre-releases, regulatory decisions often happen Friday night; (3) Regime confirmation — the afternoon session either confirms or denies the morning's thesis. Today, the afternoon improved from deep risk-off to early risk-off, validating a shift toward momentum and squeeze setups.

A+ Selection Criteria (Evening)

A setup qualifies as A+ when: (1) Score ≥80/100; (2) At least 2 technical signals aligned; (3) Identifiable catalyst (screener signal, analyst action, news, short squeeze dynamics); (4) 100% new vs morning scan (anti-doublon mandatory); (5) Regime consistency check (strategy weight alignment); (6) Weekend risk assessment (no earnings next week unless thesis is earnings-driven).

Disclaimer

This is not financial advice. The scanner is an educational algorithmic screening tool. All setups are generated by quantitative models and should not be interpreted as buy/sell recommendations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Setups 9 (CLF) and 10 (TERN) are explicitly labeled speculative — position size accordingly (1-2% max). Crypto setups (GLXY, MARA) carry extreme volatility risk. Biotech (IBRX, TERN) carries binary clinical risk. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data as of close Friday March 13, 2026. Morning scan available at /scanner/20260313/. Publication: Friday, March 13, 2026 — 23:00.

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