SCANNER
Brent $104 Oil Shock Deepens — Thursday, March 13, 2026
10 A+ Setups
RegimeRisk-Off
Avg Score88.9 / 100
VIX29.4
Brent$103.86 (+3.4%)
New Tickers100%
Risk-Off deepens as Brent crude surges to $103.86 (+3.4%), now firmly above $100 for the second straight session. Iran’s Strait of Hormuz threats continue to dominate headlines. VIX elevated at ~29.4. S&P -0.61%, NASDAQ -0.93%, Nikkei -1.16%. DXY strengthening to 100.50 as dollar safety bids intensify. Gold selling off -2% to $5,023 (profit-taking after massive run). CPI data from March 11 came in inline at 2.4% YoY — but oil at $104 means next month’s print will be much hotter. We maintain full defensive positioning with heavy energy/defense/commodity bias.
Yesterday’s scan (Mar 12) featured CF (+13.2%), XOM (+1.3%), EQNR (+2.5%) — all hit or approached targets. Today we rotate into fresh energy names (CVX, COP, HAL) to avoid chasing extended breakouts. Defense (RTX) and healthcare (ABBV, UNH) provide non-oil defensive exposure. CAT benefits from infrastructure + mining capex cycle. TLT as rate hedge, EWD for Nordic energy-adjacent exposure, BITO as contrarian oversold bounce.
Curated from 5,951 symbols screened across 4 strategies. 100% new tickers vs Mar 12 scan (CF, KR, XOM, EQNR, NEM, LMT, MRK, GLD, SQQQ, DBA all excluded). Following retro Mar 6: minimum $5B market cap, energy overweight, 30% hedge/diversifier allocation.
Chevron is trading at $196.82, just 1% below its 52-week high of $198.88, as Brent crude crosses $104. With a $394B market cap, CVX is the second-largest US oil major offering pure integrated exposure to the oil price surge. Forward PE 21x with a 3.6% dividend yield provides income protection. Price is 12% above the 50DMA ($175.62) and 25% above 200DMA ($157.77). Unlike XOM (in yesterday’s scan), CVX has more Gulf of Mexico exposure and less refining margin sensitivity, making it a cleaner oil price beta. The Hess acquisition adds Guyana deepwater assets — the world’s best new basin.
ConocoPhillips hit a new 52-week high of $122.50 today (+1.4%), the purest large-cap E&P play on oil prices. At $121.89 with $149B market cap, COP has the highest oil price sensitivity of any major. Forward PE 17.8x with 2.8% dividend yield. Price is 15% above 50DMA ($105.65) and 28% above 200DMA ($95.46). The Marathon Oil acquisition makes COP the largest US independent E&P, with dominant Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken positions. With Brent at $104, COP’s free cash flow yield expands dramatically.
Halliburton pulled back -3.3% today despite oil surging, creating a textbook pre-squeeze dip entry in the oilfield services leader. At $33.69 with 12.5x forward PE and $28.4B market cap, HAL is the cheapest way to play the oil services capex cycle. The stock is 9% below its 52-week high of $37.03, right at the 50DMA ($33.65) support level. OFS companies are leveraged to both oil prices AND drilling activity — with $104 Brent, E&P capex budgets will be revised sharply upward. HAL’s 1.95% dividend yield adds downside protection. Volume at 15.8M is elevated, suggesting institutional repositioning.
RTX (Raytheon) is the #2 US defense contractor and the premier missile/radar systems provider. At $204.52 (+0.7% today while S&P dropped -0.6%), RTX continues to outperform in Risk-Off. The stock is 5% below its 52-week high of $214.50, with forward PE 27.2x and 1.3% dividend yield. $275B market cap makes this the largest defense play. Price is 3% above the 50DMA ($198.64) and 20% above 200DMA ($170.02). Patriot missile systems and Pratt & Whitney engines are in peak demand as NATO ramps defense spending. The Iran conflict directly benefits RTX’s missile defense business.
AbbVie pulled back -2.5% today to $219.68, creating a dip-buy in the premier large-cap pharma name. At 13.6x forward PE with a 3.1% dividend yield and $388B market cap, ABBV is deeply defensive. Skyrizi and Rinvoq are fully replacing lost Humira revenue, with combined sales expected to exceed $27B by 2027. The stock is 10% below its 52-week high of $244.81, at the 50DMA ($224.81) support zone. Healthcare is a classic Risk-Off sector — people need medicine regardless of oil prices or geopolitics. The pullback is broad market noise, not ABBV-specific.
UnitedHealth bounced +1.8% today to $282.09 after a massive 53% drawdown from its 52-week high of $606.36. At 14.1x forward PE with 3.2% dividend yield and $256B market cap, UNH is trading at historically cheap levels for the largest US health insurer. The selloff was driven by CEO transition, DOJ investigation, and MLR concerns — but the business fundamentals remain intact with $400B+ revenue run rate. This is a classic oversold bounce setup: extreme pessimism creates opportunity. Price is below both the 50DMA ($305.22) and 200DMA ($314.75), meaning any reversion to mean is significant upside.
Caterpillar is the global mining and construction equipment leader, directly benefiting from the commodity supercycle. At $693.99 with $325B market cap, CAT is 12% below its 52-week high of $789.81. Forward PE 25.1x, with price right at the 50DMA ($686.58) support — a pullback entry. Gold at $5,023, copper at $5.68/lb, and oil at $104 drive mining capex higher. CAT’s backlog is at record levels. The -1.0% pullback today is market-wide selling, not CAT-specific. Infrastructure spending (IIJA, CHIPS Act projects) provides a secular demand floor independent of commodity prices.
TLT at $86.54 is approaching the 52-week low of $83.30, creating an oversold bounce opportunity in long-duration Treasuries. The -92K February payrolls and weakening labor market argue for rate cuts, which would drive TLT sharply higher. Bond prices are being depressed by oil-driven inflation fears, but the Fed will eventually pivot to growth concerns over inflation. TLT provides negative equity beta — critical portfolio insurance in Risk-Off. Price is below both 50DMA ($88.24) and 200DMA ($88.15), making this a contrarian entry.
EWD provides exposure to Sweden’s industrial/defense powerhouse economy. Top holdings include Atlas Copco, Volvo, ABB, and Saab (defense). At $49.34, EWD is 10% below its 52-week high of $54.93, right at the 50DMA ($52.22) zone after today’s -2.4% pullback. Sweden benefits from NATO defense spending (Saab/Gripen jets), and its industrial base (mining equipment, heavy machinery) rides the commodity supercycle. This is the required EU exposure — Nordic industrials are oil-adjacent beneficiaries, not victims. Forward PE ~17x for the ETF.
BITO at $9.80 is down 59% from its 52-week high of $23.63, creating a deeply oversold contrarian bounce opportunity. Bitcoin has been crushed alongside risk assets during the Iran crisis, but BTC historically rebounds aggressively when geopolitical fear peaks — it is increasingly treated as “digital gold” by institutional allocators. BITO is 10% below its 50DMA ($10.86) and 42% below 200DMA ($16.86). Volume at 131M is elevated, suggesting capitulation selling. This is a tactical bounce trade, max 3% portfolio — not a conviction position. Any ceasefire or de-escalation headline could trigger a 20%+ snap-back.
Day 2 of Risk-Off with oil above $100. Portfolio construction: 30% energy producers (CVX, COP, HAL), 20% defense/industrials (RTX, CAT), 20% healthcare (ABBV, UNH), 20% hedges/diversifiers (TLT, EWD), 10% contrarian (BITO). 100% new tickers vs Mar 12 scan. Average score: 88.9/100.
| Ticker | Strategy | Region | Score | Entry | Stop | TP1 | R/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | Breakout | US | 93 | $194-198 | $188 | $210 | 1:1.5 |
| COP | Momentum | US | 92 | $119-122 | $114 | $132 | 1:1.6 |
| HAL | Pre-Squeeze | US | 91 | $33-35 | $31 | $37 | 1:1.5 |
| RTX | Breakout | US | 90 | $202-206 | $195 | $215 | 1:1.5 |
| ABBV | Pre-Squeeze | US | 89 | $218-222 | $210 | $235 | 1:1.5 |
| UNH | Oversold Bounce | US | 88 | $278-284 | $265 | $305 | 1:1.5 |
| CAT | Pre-Squeeze | US | 88 | $685-700 | $665 | $740 | 1:1.5 |
| TLT | Oversold Bounce | ETF | 87 | $86-87 | $83 | $90 | 1:1.3 |
| EWD | Breakout | EU | 86 | $48.50-50 | $46 | $53 | 1:1.4 |
| BITO | Oversold Bounce | ETF | 85 | $9.50-10 | $8.50 | $12 | 1:1.7 |
Energy (CVX, COP, HAL): Core positions. Hold as long as Brent >$95. Scale into pullbacks.
Defense (RTX) + Industrials (CAT): Swing positions. Iran conflict = catalyst. Take profits at 52w highs.
Healthcare (ABBV, UNH): Defensive anchors. Longer horizon. Patient holds for mean reversion.
TLT: Contrarian rate hedge. Entry on further weakness. Patience required for Fed pivot.
EWD: Nordic exposure. Smaller position (5% max) per retro EU ETF warning.
BITO: Speculative bounce. Max 3% portfolio. Exit on any +20% move.
5,951 symbols screened across 4 strategies (Short Squeeze 40%, Pre-Squeeze 35%, Breakout 15%, Momentum 10%). Component scores: VIX 1.00, Credit 1.00, TLT 0.50, Liquidity 0.50, DXY 0.68, SPX 0.36. Regime: Risk-Off confirmed (score 0.43).
Per Mar 6 retro (B-): $5B minimum market cap, energy overweight in Risk-Off, EU ETF allocation reduced (EWD only, with genuine A+ thesis), 100% ticker rotation vs previous scan, no chasing extended breakouts (new energy names vs yesterday’s CF/XOM/EQNR).
All 10 prices validated against live quotes. Timestamp: 2026-03-13T22:10Z. Max deviation <1%. All tickers tradable with >$5M daily volume.
US: 7 stocks (CVX, COP, HAL, RTX, ABBV, UNH, CAT). EU: 1 ETF (EWD — Sweden). ETFs: 2 (TLT, BITO). 100% new tickers vs Mar 12.
This is NOT financial advice. All setups are for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Last retro scored B provisoire (45,5% HR — rétro 20260313). Trading involves substantial risk. BITO and leveraged instruments carry additional risks. Always DYOR.
Data: MarketWatch Gateway (Fintel, ChartExchange, Yahoo Finance). Quotes as of 2026-03-13 22:10 UTC.