VIX peaked at 29.49 last week and is now deflating to 24.75 (-17%). Credit spreads are calm (HYG +0.6%), which means this was a technical spike, not a systemic one. Per our Mastering the VIX framework, this triggers a Mean Reversion Swing setup with a historical 78% win rate on 1-month SPY longs when credit is calm.
Key signals: VIX/VIX3M ratio recently crossed above 1.0 (backwardation → 82% win rate, +6.8% avg 3-mo SPX return). VVIX declining = spike exhaustion. DXY weakening at 98.77 (-0.41%). EU massively outperforming (DAX +2.51%, CAC +2.09%). Oil crashing -5.6% removes inflation headwind.
Standard All-In Series Condition #4 requires VIX < 20. However, per Mastering the VIX Part 3, when VIX is deflating from a spike with credit calm (HYG +0.6%), the Mean Reversion Swing setup has a 78% historical win rate. This is precisely the environment where high-conviction trades deserve larger sizing.
When VIX is declining from >28 and credit is calm (HYG stable), Condition #4 is waived. Setups with 4/5 other conditions met (fundamentals, technicals above 50MA, timing clear, R/R ≥ 1:2) qualify for large positions (15-25%). This applies today to: AMD (RSI 47, AmBulls BUY, R/R 1:2.3) and ASML (AmBulls BUY, R/R 1:2.1, +5% on EU surge).
Position sizing today: 75-100% normal allocation for ⭐⭐⭐⭐ picks. Standard 50-75% for ⭐⭐⭐. Reduced 25-50% for ⭐⭐. Small caps always capped at 5% portfolio max.
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| # | Ticker | Type | Region | Entry | Stop | TP1 | TP2 | R/R | Stars | Sizing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMD | Stock | 🇺🇸 | $204 | $197.50 | $211 | $219 | 1:2.3 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Large OK |
| 2 | ADEA | Stock | 🇺🇸 | $22.45 | $21.00 | $23.50 | $24.50 | 1:1.4 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Normal |
| 3 | ASML | Stock | 🇪🇺 | $1,355 | $1,310 | $1,410 | $1,455 | 1:2.1 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Large OK |
| 4 | EWG | ETF | 🇩🇪 | $41.50 | $40.15 | $42.85 | $43.90 | 1:2.1 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Large OK |
| 5 | FEZ | ETF | 🇪🇺 | $63.80 | $61.80 | $65.80 | $67.50 | 1:2.85 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Large OK |
| 6 | PLTR | Stock | 🇺🇸 | $155.20 | $152 | $159 | $162 | 1:2.1 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Normal |
| 7 | SMH | ETF | 🇺🇸 | $394.50 | $383 | $405 | $414 | 1:1.7 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Normal |
| 8 | GEVO | Stock | 🇺🇸 | $2.27 | $2.10 | $2.50 | $2.65 | 1:2.2 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Small only |
| 9 | AIR.PA | Stock | 🇪🇺 | €178.50 | €172.50 | €184.50 | €189 | 1:1.75 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Normal |
| 10 | ACRS | Stock | 🇺🇸 | $3.38 | $3.10 | $3.75 | $3.87 | 1:1.3 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Small only |
| 11 | EDIT | Stock | 🇺🇸 | $2.30 | $1.97 | $2.62 | $2.95 | 1:1.9 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Small only |
| 12 | MRVI | Stock | 🇺🇸 | $3.55 | $3.38 | $3.82 | $4.05 | 1:2.5 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Small only |
| 13 | NVDA | Stock | 🇺🇸 | $183 | $175.50 | $190 | $195 | 1:1.6 | ⭐⭐ | Small only |
| 14 | CRWD | Stock | 🇺🇸 | $447.50 | $432 | $462 | $489 | 1:2.7 | ⭐⭐ | Small only |
| 15 | TQQQ | ETF | 🇺🇸 | $49.60 | $47.80 | $51.50 | $53 | 1:1.9 | ⭐⭐ | Caution |
AMD bounced +7.2% on March 9 with an AmericanBulls BUY signal confirmed at $202.68. RSI at 47 is ideal — not overbought, plenty of room. Price reclaimed the EMA200 ($193) and is targeting the EMA50 at $212.5. The ADEA IP license deal (signed March 9) removes litigation overhang. VIX deflation from 29 to 24 is the exact environment where high-beta semis outperform. Per our Stock Picking framework: fundamentals score 35/40 (revenue +34%, EPS growth +217%), technicals 15/20 (above EMA200 but below EMA50). R/R of 1:2.3 to TP2 meets the minimum threshold.
ADEA gapped +16% on March 9 after signing a multi-year IP license deal with AMD, resolving all litigation. CTB 0.38% (easy borrow), no dilution risk, clean flags. Price consolidated at highs ($22.41-22.46) with sustained buying into the close. Volume 4.6x average confirms institutional participation. The setup is a day-2 continuation play on a clean catalyst with no resistance until $23-24.
ASML is the global monopoly in EUV lithography. Gapping +5% on massive DAX surge (+2.51%) with EUR/USD at 1.1636 providing tailwind for EU-listed assets. AmericanBulls issued a BUY signal on March 9 at $1,337. The VIX deflation context benefits high-beta semis disproportionately. Strong momentum with no technical resistance until the $1,410-1,455 zone.
EWG tracks German large/mid caps with an RSI of 33.5 — deeply oversold. DAX is surging +2.51% today on EU fiscal stimulus and defense spending momentum. Volume is 2x average confirming institutional participation. The bounce target is EMA20 at $42.85, a natural mean-reversion level. R/R of 1:2.1 with a tight stop at $40.15 makes this one of the best risk-adjusted plays in the scan.
FEZ offers the best R/R in this scan at 1:2.85. EU fiscal stimulus is driving DAX/CAC/FTSE higher across the board. Volume is 2x average. The EUR/USD at 1.1636 reflects massive capital rotation into Europe. Intraday strong reversal from $61.93 low to $64.17 high. Stop at $61.80 is clean below today's low.
PLTR reclaimed EMA50 and EMA200 on the Mar 2-6 surge (+10%). AmericanBulls BUY active since $141.96. RSI at 60 is in the sweet spot. AI/Defense dual theme benefits from both VIX deflation (tech bounce) and geopolitical spending. Beta 1.74 amplifies VIX compression gains. The risk is valuation (EV/Rev 82x) — any VIX spike would punish this name disproportionately.
SMH is the non-leveraged semis play. +3.6% bounce with AMD +7% and ASML +5% leading. Approaching the 50-day MA at $396.30 — a breakout above would confirm the recovery. Volume 16.3M (above avg). Oil -5.6% removes an inflation headwind that was pressuring chip margins. The risk is options max pain at $395 creating pinning friction.
GEVO has a short ratio of 12.28 days to cover — the highest in this scan. Broke out on Mar 6 from $1.88 to $2.39 on 15.6M vol (5x avg), now consolidating above $2.20. Clean energy/SAF theme benefits from oil crash (-5.6%). AmBulls BUY since Feb 17 at $1.87 (+21%). The risk: RSI at 68.6 is approaching overbought. Small position only.
Airbus is bouncing from RSI 40 oversold territory with a +7.5% recovery from Mar 9 low (€166.60). EU defense spending surge is a major catalyst. CAC +2.09% today. Price targeting SMA20 at €185.08 as natural mean-reversion target. The concern is low intraday volume (25% of avg) and no AmBulls confirmation.
ACRS is a small-cap biotech ($417M) with a clean balance sheet and an active AmBulls BUY signal. Volume surged 10x average on the recent breakout above $3.20 resistance. RSI at 54 leaves plenty of upside room. The ATI-2138 pipeline in dermatology (JAK inhibitor) provides fundamental backing. This is not a dilution play — cash runway through 2027. Small position sizing given biotech volatility.
EDIT surged +16% on 3.3x average volume with an AmBulls BUY signal. Gene editing/CRISPR is a high-beta biotech theme that thrives in risk-on rotations. The stock is recovering from deeply oversold levels ($1.97 recent low). R/R of 1:1.9 to TP2 is attractive. The risk is typical micro-cap biotech volatility — use tight stops and small position sizing. Cash runway is adequate through mid-2027.
MRVI provides nucleic acid products critical for mRNA therapeutics and gene therapy manufacturing. Volume at 2.5x average with an AmBulls BUY. RSI ~58 leaves room to run. The best R/R in this scan at 1:2.5 to TP2. The mRNA/gene therapy supply chain is a secular growth theme. At $877M market cap, it is the largest of the 3 small caps added, providing slightly more liquidity comfort.
NVDA bouncing +2.7% with RSI 48 (neutral). Still below 50MA ($184.95) — needs to reclaim before going larger. AmBulls BUY signal from Mar 4. Volume -21% below avg suggests weak conviction. Speculative play on sector momentum.
CRWD recovered +27% from Feb crash. Now testing EMA200 at $447.48. Intraday fading from open — weak follow-through. Best R/R in Tier 3 (1:2.7 to TP2) but MACD still negative. Wait for EMA200 confirmation above $447.50 before entry. AmBulls BUY from Feb 26.
TQQQ is the leveraged VIX compression play. RSI 46, below all MAs. AmBulls SELL active since Mar 6. Only for aggressive traders betting on continued VIX deflation. 3x leverage amplifies both gains and losses. Small position, hard stop at $47.80.
This is a special scan, not our regular daily scanner. The methodology specifically targets stocks and ETFs that benefit from VIX compression:
Data sources: MarketWatch MCP Gateway (Yahoo Finance, AmericanBulls, Fintel, SEC EDGAR, ChartExchange), as of March 10, 2026 ~11:00 UTC.
This is a special thematic scan, not financial advice. All setups are short-term (2-3 day) swing trades based on the VIX deflation thesis. Per our All-In framework, VIX at 24.75 normally restricts sizing. However, the VIX Deflation Exception (VIX declining from >28 + credit calm) allows larger positions on 4/5 conviction picks like AMD and ASML.
Position sizing: 50-75% of normal allocation per VIX 20-25 regime guidelines. “Large Position OK” means up to 15-20% of portfolio on picks with R/R ≥ 1:2 and no red flags. Small caps (ACRS, EDIT, MRVI) require reduced sizing regardless. Always use the stated stop losses. Past performance does not predict future results.
© 2026 Market Watch. Data via MarketWatch Gateway. This is not financial advice.