MARKET WATCH
Following the retrospectives (C+ on Feb 20, B+ on Feb 28), we adjusted our approach: 30% defensive/short positions for Risk-Off alignment, strict price validation (spot <10% deviation), and 100% new tickers vs. yesterday's scan. The Iran/Hormuz crisis continues to dominate markets with WTI surging +12% to $91/bbl, while equities sell off broadly (S&P 500 -1.33%, Russell 2000 -2.33%). Gold hits new records at $5,179/oz. Our scanner pivots to energy beneficiaries, defense plays, safe havens, and hedges.
In a Risk-Off regime (VIX >25, negative equity breadth, rising correlations), the scanner automatically shifts weights toward short squeeze and pre-squeeze strategies, which historically outperform during elevated volatility. We also mandate 20-30% of setups be defensive hedges or shorts to protect against further downside. Energy and safe-haven commodities (gold, silver) become primary targets as geopolitical risk premiums expand.
ExxonMobil is the primary beneficiary of the Iran/Hormuz supply disruption driving WTI to $91/bbl (+12.4% today). As the largest US integrated oil major, XOM has direct leverage to crude prices with peer-leading upstream margins. The stock is trading near its 52-week high ($159.61) with strong momentum. Forward P/E of 18x is reasonable given the geopolitical premium in oil prices. The company's massive production base means every $1/bbl increase in WTI adds ~$400M to annual free cash flow.
Equinor just hit a new all-time high at $33.64, surging +5.76% as the Norwegian energy giant benefits from the Iran/Hormuz crisis. As Europe's largest offshore oil & gas producer with significant North Sea and Barents Sea operations, Equinor is uniquely positioned to benefit from European energy supply diversification away from Middle East sources. Forward P/E of 11.9x makes it cheaper than US peers while offering a 4.9% dividend yield. Brent crude at $92.84 is the primary catalyst.
RTX Corporation surges +2.9% to $209.76, approaching its 52-week high of $214.50 as the Iran conflict escalation drives unprecedented demand for defense systems. The White House is convening top weapons manufacturers including RTX for an urgent meeting to accelerate production as US munitions stockpiles thin. Full-year revenue of $88.6B (+10% YoY) with guidance raised to $92-93B for 2026. Adjusted EPS guided at $6.60-6.80 (+5-8% YoY). Defense spending globally is accelerating with NATO allies fast-tracking procurement.
Kroger surges +3.55% to $74.11 — a near 52-week high breakout after beating Q4 earnings ($1.28 EPS vs $1.20 expected). The grocery giant is the quintessential defensive play in Risk-Off: consumers keep buying food regardless of geopolitics. FY26 guidance of $5.10-5.30 EPS with e-commerce profitability improvements of ~$400M is a structural catalyst. Grocery stores are the top-performing industry today (+3%), confirming sector rotation into staples.
ADM benefits from the dual tailwind of agricultural input demand and energy supply disruption. As the world's largest agricultural processor, ADM sees margin expansion when commodity prices rise (corn, soybeans, wheat all impacted by Middle East supply chain disruptions). Trading near 52-week high ($70.48) with forward P/E of 14.5x and a 3.1% dividend yield. Agricultural inputs are the #2 top-performing industry today (+3%), confirming the rotation into real assets.
TotalEnergies is the second European energy major in our scan, rising +2.26% to $78.77 as Brent crude hits $92.84. The French integrated energy company trades at a forward P/E of just 10.9x — the cheapest among our energy picks — with a generous 5.1% dividend yield. TTE is well-positioned: price is near its 52-week high of $82.21 with strong momentum (50-day MA at $71.45 well below current price). As Europe diversifies energy supply away from Middle East, TTE's North Sea and Africa assets gain strategic importance.
Gold is the ultimate safe-haven play in the current Risk-Off environment. Spot gold at $5,179/oz (+1.98%) after hitting a record $5,419/oz earlier this week. GLD is up +83.7% over the past year, driven by central bank buying, geopolitical risk premium, and negative real rates expectations. The Iran crisis is accelerating the gold supercycle as investors flee equity risk. The "Great Divergence" between record gold prices and 4.10% Treasury yields reflects unprecedented demand for hard assets as a hedge against geopolitical and monetary uncertainty.
After crashing 12% in a single session on Iran fears, EWY is showing signs of recovery (+0.79% today) as extreme dislocation creates an opportunity. The ETF is still up +149% over the past year and +36% YTD, driven by Samsung, SK Hynix, and the AI semiconductor supercycle. At $126.73 (vs 52-week high $154.22), EWY offers a 17.8% discount to peak with a forward P/E of 17x — well below US tech multiples. Volume of 43.6M (vs 14.4M avg) signals massive institutional repositioning. This is a contrarian recovery play on Asia's semiconductor powerhouse.
In a Risk-Off environment with VIX at 29.49 and the S&P 500 falling -1.33%, SH provides portfolio protection as a 1x inverse S&P 500 ETF. Unlike leveraged inverse ETFs (SQQQ, SPXU), SH has minimal volatility decay making it suitable for multi-day holds. The geopolitical situation (Iran "unconditional surrender" demand, Hormuz closure) suggests sustained equity pressure ahead. CPI data on March 13 with oil-driven inflation spike could add further downside pressure to equities. This is our mandatory Risk-Off hedge allocation.
Natural gas surges +5.53% to $3.17/MMBtu as the Iran crisis ripples through global energy markets. UNG rises +5.81% on the day with massive volume (26M vs 7.8M avg). While natural gas has its own fundamentals (weather, storage), the geopolitical premium is additive: disruption to Middle East LNG supply channels benefits US nat gas exporters. UNG is reclaiming its 50-day MA ($12.41) after trading below it — a bullish signal. The trade is more speculative than our energy majors but offers higher beta to the energy spike theme.
| Ticker | Name | Score | Strategy | Entry | Stop | TP1 | R/R | Region |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | ExxonMobil | 92 | Momentum | $149–152 | $142 | $159.60 | 1:1.9 | US 🇺🇸 |
| EQNR | Equinor | 93 | Momentum | $33–34 | $30 | $37.50 | 1:2.2 | EU 🇪🇺 |
| RTX | RTX Corp | 91 | Momentum | $207–212 | $195 | $225 | 1:2.0 | US 🇺🇸 |
| KR | Kroger | 90 | Breakout | $73–75 | $70 | $79 | 1:2.0 | US 🇺🇸 |
| ADM | Archer-Daniels | 87 | Momentum | $66.50–68 | $63.50 | $70.50 | 1:1.7 | US 🇺🇸 |
| TTE | TotalEnergies | 91 | Momentum | $77.50–79.50 | $72 | $85 | 1:1.8 | EU 🇪🇺 |
| GLD | SPDR Gold | 93 | Momentum | $468–476 | $450 | $510 | 1:2.3 | ETF 📊 |
| EWY | iShares Korea | 86 | Recovery | $124–128 | $115 | $140 | 1:1.7 | Asia 🌏 |
| SH | Short S&P | 88 | Hedge | $36.50–37.20 | $35.30 | $38.50 | 1:1.8 | ETF 📊 |
| UNG | US Nat Gas | 90 | Momentum | $12.40–13 | $11.50 | $14.50 | 1:1.7 | ETF 📊 |
Today's scan is dominated by energy plays (4/10 setups: XOM, EQNR, TTE, UNG) reflecting the WTI +12% spike. We balance this with defensive names (KR, ADM) for stability, defense (RTX) for the geopolitical theme, safe havens (GLD) for risk management, a contrarian recovery play (EWY) for Asia exposure, and a short hedge (SH) as mandated by the Risk-Off regime. Average R/R ratio of 1:1.9 across all setups.
Based on cumulative retrospective analysis (Feb 20: C+, Feb 28: B+), we have implemented the following improvements: (1) 100% price validation via spot quotes — 0 entries with >10% deviation; (2) 100% new tickers vs. yesterday (anti-duplicate filter active); (3) 30% defensive/short positions (SH, GLD, KR) aligned with Risk-Off regime; (4) Geographic diversification with 2 EU + 1 APAC + 3 ETF setups.
The scanner analyzes 6 macro components (VIX, SPX trend, DXY, credit spreads, liquidity, TLT) to classify the market into one of 5 regimes: Risk-On, Neutral, Early Risk-Off, Risk-Off, or Recovery. Today's regime is Risk-Off (score 0.42/1.0) driven by VIX at 29.49 (component score 1.0/1.0) and weak SPX (0.37/1.0). This automatically adjusts strategy weights toward short squeeze (40%), pre-squeeze (35%), breakout (15%), and momentum (10%).
We run 4 parallel screeners across 5,825 symbols: (1) Auto-adaptive screener with regime-adjusted weights; (2) Oversold bounce (RSI<35, volume spike); (3) Momentum expansion (above MA50, MACD bullish); (4) Breakout squeeze (ATR expansion above MA50). Results are merged and deduplicated to find convergent signals.
Each candidate is scored on 4 dimensions: Technical (RSI, MACD, support/resistance proximity — 30%), Volume (relative volume vs 20-day average, OBV trend — 25%), Momentum (price vs MAs, trend strength — 25%), Risk (ATR-adjusted stop distance, max drawdown history — 20%). Minimum composite score for A+ selection: 85/100.
From 30+ candidates, we select the top 10 with: (1) Composite score ≥85; (2) ≥3 confluent technical signals; (3) Identifiable catalyst (earnings, news, breakout); (4) Sufficient liquidity; (5) Geographic diversification (min 5 US + 2 EU + 1 APAC + 2 ETF); (6) In Risk-Off: min 20% shorts/hedges; (7) R/R ratio ≥1:1.5.
Final validation includes: (1) Spot price check — reject any setup where entry differs >10% from live quote; (2) Anti-duplicate filter — min 70% new tickers vs. previous scan; (3) Retrospective feedback — strategies and patterns that underperformed in prior retros are downweighted; (4) Insider transaction check — flag any unusual insider activity. All 10 setups today passed validation with 0 price discrepancies.
MarketWatch Gateway (real-time quotes, technicals, fundamentals), Yahoo Finance (indices, sentiment), Fintel/ChartExchange (short interest, CTB), SEC EDGAR (filings, insider transactions). All data as of March 6, 2026 market close.
This scanner output is generated algorithmically for educational and informational purposes only. It does NOT constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments. Past performance of the scanner does not guarantee future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. The setups presented reflect technical and quantitative analysis at a specific point in time and may not account for all relevant factors. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Market Watch and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses incurred from acting on this information.