Market Regime
EARLY RISK-OFF — Score 0.51 / SCOTUS Tariffs + Relief Rally + NVDA Countdown
The market is operating in an EARLY RISK-OFF phase with a regime score of 0.51 (risk_tolerance 0.3). The major event of the day is the SCOTUS 6-3 ruling invalidating the use of IEEPA for tariffs, triggering a relief rally: S&P 500 +0.72% at 6,911, Nasdaq +0.88%, Dow +0.2%. Gold confirms above $5,000 (GLD $468.62, +1.97%) and silver surges to SLV $76.62 (+7.90%). The dollar remains weak (DXY 97.91), supporting metals. Europe outperforms (EWG +1.00%, VGK +0.98%). Yesterday's earnings setups (COLD, OMC, NICE, DE) continue their trajectory. RingCentral (RNG) jumps +34% post-earnings. AG (First Majestic Silver) hits a new 52W high. NVDA earnings on February 25 are the #1 catalyst for next week.
Macro Components
VIX
19.28 (Score 1.00)
DXY (Dollar Index)
97.91 • Score 0.81
S&P 500 (SPX)
6,911.05 (+0.72%) • Score 0.56
TLT (20Y Treasury)
Score 0.49
Credit
Score 1.00
Liquidity
Score 0.50
Why these 10 setups in EARLY RISK-OFF?
In an EARLY RISK-OFF regime with the SCOTUS relief rally and metals surging, the selected setups combine four themes: (1) Day+1 earnings breakouts with post-catalyst momentum follow-through (COLD, OMC, NICE, DE -- large gaps from yesterday in consolidation/continuation); (2) Precious metals safe haven in breakout (AG +11.18% with record Q4, SLV +7.90%) benefiting from weak DXY and silver above $80/oz; (3) Catalyst play (ETSY Depop sale $1.2B to eBay, +8.39% in continuation); (4) Infrastructure & AI megatrends (LITE $667.77 52W high, FIX $1,462 ATH, GEV $830 near ATH, CAT $760 near ATH) positioned for NVDA earnings on February 25. The mix is calibrated for a moderate risk regime with clear fundamental catalysts and well-defined technical levels.
Overview
Consolidated market dashboard and the 10 detected setups. Post-SCOTUS relief rally: SPY +0.72% at $689.43, QQQ +0.88%. Silver surges SLV +7.90% and gold confirms above $5,000 (GLD +1.97%). Europe higher (EWG +1.0%, VGK +0.98%). All setups remain in positive territory.
Global Markets
| Asset |
Region |
Price |
Change |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | US | $689.43 | +0.72% |
| NASDAQ (QQQ) | US | $608.81 | +0.88% |
| DAX (EWG) | Europe | $44.32 | +1.00% |
| Europe (VGK) | Europe | $90.01 | +0.98% |
| Japan (EWJ) | Asia | $91.47 | +0.30% |
| Gold (GLD) | Commodity | $468.62 | +1.97% |
| Silver (SLV) | Commodity | $76.62 | +7.90% |
| Energy (XLE) | Commodity | $54.88 | -0.54% |
| DXY | US Dollar | 97.91 | — |
Key Events of the Day
SCOTUS Invalidates IEEPA Tariffs
The Supreme Court (6-3) blocks the use of IEEPA to impose tariffs. Massive relief rally: GOOGL +4%, AMZN +2%, NKE +2%. Removal of tariff-related inflationary pressures.
GDP Miss + Mixed Earnings
Disappointing Q4 GDP overshadowed by the SCOTUS ruling. RNG +34% post-earnings. WMT -2% HSBC downgrade. CPRT -7% revenue miss. AG record Q4 + silver rally.
NVDA Earnings on February 25
#1 catalyst for next week. The entire AI chain (LITE, GLW, CIEN, FIX) is positioning. AI infrastructure momentum intact despite macro risk-off.
Precious Metals Surging
SLV +7.90%, GLD +1.97%. AG hits a new 52W high at $27.90. Silver above $80/oz. Weak dollar (DXY 97.91) fuels the metals rally.
Aggregated Profile of 10 Setups
Summary
Overview of the 10 A+ setups detected today. The selection combines powerful earnings breakouts (COLD, OMC, NICE, DE), a safe haven play on silver (AG), a catalyst play (ETSY/Depop), and infrastructure & AI megatrends (LITE, FIX, GEV, CAT). Each setup integrates a clear fundamental catalyst with well-defined technical levels.
| Ticker |
Region |
Strategy |
Entry |
Target 1 |
R/R |
COLD
+15.75% |
US REIT |
Earnings Breakout |
$13.40-$13.90 |
$15.50 |
1:2.3 |
OMC
+15.36% |
US Comm. |
Momentum + Buyback |
$79-$81 |
$89.27 |
1:2.1 |
NICE
+13.25% |
Israel |
AI Growth Breakout |
$108-$112 |
$130 |
1:2.5 |
DE
+11.58% |
US Industrials |
Earnings + Cycle |
$650-$665 |
$700 |
1:2.0 |
AG
+11.18% |
Canada |
Safe Haven |
$26.50-$27.50 |
$30.00 |
1:2.2 |
ETSY
+8.39% |
US Tech |
Catalyst + Oversold |
$46-$48.50 |
$56.14 |
1:2.5 |
LITE
+5.05% |
US Tech |
Momentum + AI Infra |
$650-$670 |
$720 |
1:1.7 |
FIX
+6.46% |
US Industrials |
Momentum + Infra |
$1,430-$1,465 |
$1,550 |
1:1.6 |
GEV
-0.51% |
US Industrials |
Energy Transition |
$820-$835 |
$900 |
1:1.8 |
CAT
-0.10% |
US Industrials |
Infra Cycle |
$750-$762 |
$800 |
1:1.8 |
Daily Change of the 10 Setups
Reading Guide
The summary table presents the 10 setups with their region, strategy, entry levels, first target, and risk/reward ratio. An R/R above 1:2 is considered favorable. The bar chart visualizes end-of-day changes: 7 setups higher led by AG (+11.18%), ETSY (+8.39%) and FIX (+6.46%), while COLD (-3.46%), GEV (-0.51%) and CAT (-0.10%) consolidate slightly. The mix of bullish/consolidation reflects the selective post-SCOTUS relief rally. Sector diversification remains strong with REIT, Communication, Tech, Industrials, Materials and Consumer Discretionary represented.
Investment Thesis
First Majestic Silver benefits from the spectacular precious metals rally with silver up +3.73% to $80.53/oz and gold above $5,000 ($5,052.10, +1.09%). The DXY weakness at 97.91 directly supports metal prices. Iran geopolitical tensions add a significant safe haven premium. AG is a pure silver proxy, posting a +9.65% gain with massive volume of 27.77M (5x average), confirming a major institutional rotation into precious metals. The stock sits 27% above its 50 DMA ($19.50), reflecting exceptional momentum. Industrial silver demand (solar, electronics, electric vehicles) reinforces the structural theme beyond the simple safe haven effect.
Bullish Signals
- Silver $80.53 (+3.73%), gold above $5,000
- Weak DXY at 97.91, precious metals support
- Iran geopolitical tensions, safe haven premium
- Volume 27.8M (5x avg), institutional rotation
Invalidation Signals
- Silver below $75 (precious metals correction)
- DXY rebound above 100 (strong dollar)
- Iran de-escalation (diplomatic resolution)
- Volume dry-up < 5M (momentum exhaustion)
Key Levels
Entry: $26.50-$27.50
Stop Loss: $24.00
Target 1: $30.00
Target 2: $34.00
R/R: 1:2.2
Horizon: 5-15 days
Methodology
The MarketWatch algorithmic scanner uses a 5-step pipeline to identify the 10 best daily setups. Each step is designed to maximize quality and minimize false signals.
1. Market Regime Detection
The algorithm analyzes 6 macro components (VIX, DXY, SPX, TLT, Credit, Liquidity) to detect the dominant regime among 5 states: Risk-On, Neutral, Early Risk-Off, Risk-Off, Recovery. Each regime weights the 4 screening strategies differently. In EARLY RISK-OFF (score 0.51), Short Squeeze (40%) and Pre-Squeeze (35%) strategies are prioritized to exploit dislocations and anticipate catalyst-driven rebounds.
2. Multi-Strategy Screening
Four complementary strategies scan the investable universe:
- Short Squeeze (40%): Stocks with high short interest, rising cost-to-borrow, earnings/news catalysts that could force shorts to cover.
- Pre-Squeeze (35%): Volatility compressions preceding a directional move, Bollinger squeeze, silent accumulation volume.
- Breakout (15%): Key resistance breaks with confirmed volume, new 52W highs, post-earnings gaps.
- Momentum Expansion (10%): Established trends with high ADX, aligned moving averages, RSI without divergence.
3. Composite Scoring (4 Factors)
Each setup is scored via 4 sub-scores:
- Technical (25 pts): Pattern quality (breakout, gap, reversal), MA alignment, RSI/MACD/ATR.
- Volume (25 pts): Relative volume vs 20-day average, OBV, institutional flows, buy/sell volume ratio.
- Momentum (25 pts): Trend strength (ADX), EMA 20 slope, price velocity, absence of bearish divergences.
- Risk (25 pts): Volatility (beta, ATR), technical stop loss, R/R ratio, liquidity (bid/ask spread).
4. A+ Selection Criteria
To be selected, each setup must satisfy:
- Identified catalyst: Earnings beat, analyst upgrade, geopolitical event, sector rotation, M&A
- Confirmed volume: Relative volume > 2x the 20-day average
- Favorable R/R: Minimum risk/reward ratio of 1:1.5
- Technical signal: Active BUY signal or confirmed breakout
- Clear levels: Technically well-defined entry, stop loss, and targets
5. Validation & Ranking
Setups are ranked by descending composite score. The top 10 are retained with sector and thematic diversification: earnings/catalyst/infrastructure/safe haven mix. Each setup includes bullish and invalidation signals for dynamic position management.
Data Sources
Yahoo Finance (quotes, bars, technicals), Fintel (CTB, dark pool, institutional flows), ChartExchange (volume profile, support/resistance), SEC EDGAR (filings, insider transactions), AlphaVantage (fundamentals, earnings), AmericanBulls (trading signals), StockTwits/Reddit (sentiment), MarketWatch Gateway (real-time aggregation). Update: end of day.
Disclaimer
This scanner is a decision-support tool for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a buy/sell recommendation, or a solicitation to trade. The detected setups are based on quantitative algorithms and historical data that do not predict future performance. Financial markets carry risks of capital loss up to 100% of the initial investment. Any investment decision should be made after consulting a licensed financial advisor, based on your personal situation, investment horizon, and risk tolerance. Market Watch and its contributors disclaim all liability for financial losses resulting from the use of this scanner. Displayed data may contain errors or update delays. No performance guarantee is offered. Investing involves risks. Only trade with money you can afford to lose.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Fintel, ChartExchange, SEC EDGAR, AlphaVantage, AmericanBulls, StockTwits, Reddit, MarketWatch Gateway.
Last update: February 20, 2026 23:00 UTC • Detected regime: EARLY RISK-OFF (0.51) • 10 A+ setups
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