MW MARKET WATCH
SCANNER
Algorithmic Trade Setups — February 20, 2026
10 Top-Rated Setups
EARLY RISK-OFF
Market Mood
0.51
Regime Score
40%
Short Squeeze
35%
Pre-Squeeze
15%
Breakout
10%
Momentum
EARLY RISK-OFF 10 A+ SETUPS EARNINGS + INFRASTRUCTURE VIX 19.81
February 20, 2026 • Algorithmic scanner via MarketWatch Gateway • Beginner Edition

Welcome! What Is a Stock Scanner?

A stock scanner is like a filter that sifts through thousands of stocks every day to find the best trading opportunities. Think of it like a gold panning tool: it washes away the dirt and keeps only the nuggets.

Our algorithm checks technical patterns (price charts), volume (how many shares are being traded), momentum (strength of price movement), and risk (how much you could lose) for each stock. It then gives each one a grade.

How to read this page:

Tip: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. These are ideas, not guarantees. Always do your own research before trading.

Market Mood Today

What is a "Market Regime"?

The market regime describes the overall mood of the market. Think of it like weather: sometimes it's sunny (Risk-On, investors are confident), sometimes it's cloudy (Neutral), and sometimes a storm is coming (Risk-Off, investors are worried). Today's regime is Early Risk-Off, meaning investors are getting cautious but not panicking. This affects which types of trades are most likely to work.

EARLY RISK-OFF — Score 0.51 / Supreme Court Tariffs Ruling + Relief Rally + NVDA Countdown

The market is in an Early Risk-Off phase with a regime score of 0.51 (meaning moderate caution). The big news today: the US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that using a specific law (IEEPA) to impose tariffs was unconstitutional. This triggered a relief rally (a bounce when fears ease): the S&P 500 rose +0.72% to 6,911, Nasdaq +0.88%, Dow +0.2%. Gold confirmed above $5,000 (GLD $468.62, +1.97%) and silver surged to SLV $76.62 (+7.90%). The dollar stays weak (DXY 97.91), which supports metals. Europe outperformed (EWG +1.00%, VGK +0.98%). Yesterday's earnings winners (COLD, OMC, NICE, DE) continue their run. RingCentral (RNG) jumped +34% after earnings. AG (First Majestic Silver) hit a new 52-week high (the highest price in a year). NVDA earnings on February 25 is the #1 event for next week.

Key Market Indicators

VIX (Fear Index) 19.28 (Score 1.00)
DXY (US Dollar Strength) 97.91 • Score 0.81
S&P 500 (US Stock Market) 6,911.05 (+0.72%) • Score 0.56
TLT (Long-Term Bonds) Score 0.49
Credit (Borrowing Health) Score 1.00
Liquidity (Money Flow) Score 0.50

Strategy Weights

Overall Regime Score

Why These 10 Setups in an Early Risk-Off Market?

In an Early Risk-Off environment with the Supreme Court tariff relief rally and metals surging, our selected stocks combine four themes:

  1. Earnings Breakouts (COLD, OMC, NICE, DE) — Companies that just reported strong earnings and had big price jumps. We're looking for the move to continue.
  2. Safe Haven Metals (AG) — When investors get nervous, they buy gold and silver. AG is a silver miner benefiting from silver prices hitting $80/oz.
  3. Catalyst Play (ETSY) — A specific event (selling Depop for $1.2B to eBay) is pushing the price up.
  4. Infrastructure & AI Megatrends (LITE, FIX, GEV, CAT) — Companies building the physical infrastructure for AI data centers and energy grids, positioned for NVDA earnings on Feb 25.

Market Overview

Here's a quick snapshot of what happened in the markets today. The Supreme Court tariff ruling triggered a relief rally (when the market bounces because a fear is removed): SPY +0.72% to $689.43, QQQ +0.88%. Silver exploded SLV +7.90% and gold confirmed above $5,000 (GLD +1.97%). Europe rose (EWG +1.0%, VGK +0.98%). All of our setups remain in positive territory overall.

Global Markets at a Glance

Asset Region Price Change
S&P 500 (SPY)US$689.43+0.72%
NASDAQ (QQQ)US$608.81+0.88%
DAX (EWG)Europe$44.32+1.00%
Europe (VGK)Europe$90.01+0.98%
Japan (EWJ)Asia$91.47+0.30%
Gold (GLD)Commodity$468.62+1.97%
Silver (SLV)Commodity$76.62+7.90%
Energy (XLE)Commodity$54.88-0.54%
DXYUS Dollar97.91

What Are SPY, QQQ, GLD?

These are ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds), which are baskets of stocks you can buy like a single share. SPY tracks the S&P 500 (the 500 biggest US companies), QQQ tracks the Nasdaq 100 (mostly tech companies), GLD tracks the price of gold, and SLV tracks silver. They help us understand how the overall market is doing without checking every single stock.

Key Events of the Day

Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs

The Supreme Court (6-3) blocked the use of IEEPA (an emergency law) to impose tariffs. This means fewer import taxes, which is good for companies and consumers. Stocks rallied on the news: GOOGL +4%, AMZN +2%, NKE +2%.

GDP Miss + Mixed Earnings

GDP (the overall economy's growth) came in weaker than expected, but the market looked past it because of the tariff ruling. RNG soared +34% on great earnings. WMT dropped -2%. AG posted record Q4 results and surged with the silver rally.

NVDA Earnings on February 25

NVIDIA's earnings report is the #1 event next week. The entire AI supply chain (LITE, GLW, CIEN, FIX) is positioning ahead of it. Strong results would boost the whole AI infrastructure theme.

Precious Metals Surge

Silver (SLV) jumped +7.90%, gold (GLD) +1.97%. AG hit a new 52-week high at $27.90. Silver is above $80/oz. A weak dollar (DXY 97.91) fuels the metals rally — when the dollar falls, metals priced in dollars become cheaper for foreign buyers.

Average Profile of All 10 Setups

Breakdown by Theme

Quick Summary

Here's an overview of all 10 top-rated setups found today. The selection combines earnings breakouts (stocks that jumped on strong earnings — COLD, OMC, NICE, DE), a safe-haven play on silver (AG), a catalyst play (ETSY selling Depop), and infrastructure & AI megatrends (LITE, FIX, GEV, CAT). Each setup has a clear reason to buy and well-defined price levels.

How to Read This Table

Entry = the price range to buy at. Target 1 = the first profit target (where you could sell some). R/R = Risk/Reward ratio. For example, 1:2.3 means for every $1 you risk, you could make $2.30. Generally, anything above 1:1.5 is considered a good trade.

Ticker Region Strategy Entry Target 1 R/R
COLD
+15.75%
US REIT Earnings Breakout $13.40-$13.90 $15.50 1:2.3
OMC
+15.36%
US Comm. Momentum + Buyback $79-$81 $89.27 1:2.1
NICE
+13.25%
Israel AI Growth Breakout $108-$112 $130 1:2.5
DE
+11.58%
US Industrials Earnings + Cycle $650-$665 $700 1:2.0
AG
+11.18%
Canada Safe Haven $26.50-$27.50 $30.00 1:2.2
ETSY
+8.39%
US Tech Catalyst + Oversold $46-$48.50 $56.14 1:2.5
LITE
+5.05%
US Tech Momentum + AI Infra $650-$670 $720 1:1.7
FIX
+6.46%
US Industrials Momentum + Infra $1,430-$1,465 $1,550 1:1.6
GEV
-0.51%
US Industrials Energy Transition $820-$835 $900 1:1.8
CAT
-0.10%
US Industrials Infra Cycle $750-$762 $800 1:1.8

Today's Price Changes for the 10 Setups

How to Read This Chart

The bar chart above shows how much each stock moved today. Green bars = stocks that went up. Red bars = stocks that went down. The longer the bar, the bigger the move. AG led with +11.18%, followed by ETSY (+8.39%) and FIX (+6.46%). Three stocks consolidated slightly (pulled back after recent gains): COLD (-3.46%), GEV (-0.51%) and CAT (-0.10%). Having some stocks consolidate while others rise is normal and healthy — it shows the rally is selective, not driven by hype.

COLD

Americold Realty Trust — NYSE • REIT / Cold Storage • Cap: $3.83B
EARNINGS BREAKOUT DAY 2 -3.46% 6.6% DIVIDEND YIELD
$13.41
-3.46%

What is a REIT? A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is a company that owns income-producing properties. Americold owns temperature-controlled warehouses. REITs are required to pay most of their profits as dividends, which is why COLD's dividend yield (annual payment divided by stock price) is 6.6% — much higher than the average stock.

A+
Grade
88
Technical
95
Volume
92
Momentum
85
Risk

Composite Score

Setup Profile

Why This Stock?

Americold Realty Trust reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings (AFFO of $0.38 vs $0.37 expected) with revenue of $658.5M and announced a 5% dividend increase. The company now has 60% of contracts on fixed commitments, meaning more predictable revenue. Their 2026 guidance of $1.20-$1.30 per share beat expectations. The stock initially jumped +15.75% on massive volume (16.15M shares — 3 times normal). Today it pulled back -3.46%, which is normal after such a big move. The price is now testing the old resistance level around $13-$14, which could become new support (a floor for the price). The 6.6% dividend yield makes it attractive for income-seeking investors. The 200-day moving average at $14.27 (the average price over the last 200 days) is the first major hurdle above.

Why It Could Work

  • Q4 earnings beat + 5% dividend increase
  • Volume was 3x normal, showing big investors buying in
  • 2026 guidance above what analysts expected
  • 60% fixed contracts = more stable income

Warning Signs to Watch

  • If price falls below $12.00 (fills the earnings gap completely)
  • If selling volume exceeds 20M shares (big investors dumping)
  • If interest rates rise sharply (bad for REITs)
  • If the company lowers its 2026 guidance below $1.20

Key Price Levels

Entry: $13.40-$13.90
Stop Loss: $12.00
Target 1: $15.50 (200-day avg)
Target 2: $17.00
R/R: 1:2.3
Timeframe: 5-15 days

OMC

Omnicom Group — NYSE • Communication Services / Advertising • Cap: $26.4B
MOMENTUM + BUYBACK +2.87% $5B BUYBACK
$83.26
+2.87%

What is a Share Buyback? When a company buys back its own shares (here, $5 billion worth), it reduces the number of shares available. This usually pushes the stock price up because the same company value is divided among fewer shares. Think of it like this: if a pizza is cut into fewer slices, each slice is bigger.

A+
Grade
90
Technical
96
Volume
94
Momentum
88
Risk

Composite Score

Setup Profile

Why This Stock?

Omnicom (the world's largest advertising company) delivered an exceptional Q4 with revenue up +27.9% year-over-year to $5.53B (beating expectations by 22.8%) and announced a massive $5 billion share buyback, including $2.5B starting immediately. The savings from merging with IPG (another ad company) doubled to $1.5B. JPMorgan raised their price target to $117. The stock broke above its 50-day average ($76.83) on volume of 13.9M shares (5 times the normal amount), confirming strong institutional buying. The forward price-to-earnings ratio of 6.4x is very cheap for a global advertising leader (meaning investors pay only $6.40 for every $1 of future earnings). The 3.6% dividend yield adds income appeal.

Why It Could Work

  • Q4 revenue beat massive: +27.9% year-over-year, $5.53B
  • $5B buyback ($2.5B starting now) = strong price support
  • IPG merger savings doubled to $1.5B; JPM target $117
  • Volume 5x normal: big money is buying in

Warning Signs to Watch

  • If price falls below $73.00 (below the earnings gap)
  • If IPG merger fails to deliver expected savings (<$1B)
  • If advertising budgets get cut (recession risk)
  • If selling volume exceeds 15M shares after the hype fades

Key Price Levels

Entry: $79-$81
Stop Loss: $73.00
Target 1: $89.27 (52-week high)
Target 2: $100
R/R: 1:2.1
Timeframe: 5-20 days

NICE

NICE Ltd — NASDAQ • Technology / CX Software • Cap: $7.27B
AI GROWTH BREAKOUT +5.50% AI REVENUE +66% YoY
$117.69
+5.50%

What is ARR? Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) measures predictable, subscription-based income. When NICE says their AI ARR grew +66% year-over-year to $328M, it means customers are signing up for AI-powered services at a fast pace, and that revenue keeps coming every year. This is one of the most valued metrics for software companies.

A+
Grade
87
Technical
90
Volume
93
Momentum
86
Risk

Composite Score

Setup Profile

Why This Stock?

NICE Ltd is proving its AI transformation works: Q4 earnings slightly beat expectations ($3.24 vs $3.23) and, more importantly, AI recurring revenue grew +66% year-over-year to $328M. Every single large new contract now includes AI features. Their 2026 outlook is solid: 8% sales growth and $11 earnings per share. The stock has reversed sharply from its lowest point in a year ($99), jumping on volume 2.5 times higher than normal. At a forward P/E of 9.0x (the price you pay for each dollar of next year's earnings), it looks cheap for a company growing AI revenue this fast. Analysts' average price target is $162, which would be 45% higher than today's price.

Why It Could Work

  • AI revenue growing +66%/year to $328M
  • Reversing from 52-week low ($99), confirmed by strong volume
  • Forward P/E of 9.0x is very cheap; analysts target $162 (+45%)
  • Solid 2026 guidance: 8% sales growth, $11 EPS

Warning Signs to Watch

  • If price falls back below $99 (the year's low, reversal fails)
  • If AI revenue growth slows below 40% per year
  • If competitors (Genesys, Five9) win major contracts away
  • If selling volume exceeds 4M shares (big investors exiting)

Key Price Levels

Entry: $108-$112
Stop Loss: $99.00 (52-week low)
Target 1: $130
Target 2: $162 (analyst consensus)
R/R: 1:2.5
Timeframe: 10-30 days

DE

Deere & Company — NYSE • Industrials / Farm Machinery • Cap: $179.6B
EARNINGS + CYCLE +0.07% NEAR 52-WEEK HIGH
$662.49
+0.07%

What is a 52-Week High? The highest price a stock has reached in the past year (52 weeks). When a stock hits a new 52-week high, it often signals that the trend is very strong and that buying demand is outpacing selling. Deere hit $674.19 recently, which is the most it's been worth in a year.

A+
Grade
91
Technical
93
Volume
95
Momentum
87
Risk

Composite Score

Setup Profile

Why This Stock?

Deere & Company (John Deere) hit a new 52-week high at $674.19, driven by a Q1 earnings beat. The farming equipment cycle is recovering, with strong demand for precision agriculture and autonomous equipment (self-driving tractors). Government infrastructure spending programs add more tailwinds. The stock jumped +11.58% on volume of 6.65M shares (3.5 times the usual amount), confirming strong institutional buying. The price is well above its 50-day average ($507.41), which is a sign of powerful upward momentum. The entire Farm & Heavy Machinery sector (+7%) confirms investors are rotating into cyclical industrials (companies that do well when the economy recovers). Deere is the uncontested world leader in farm equipment.

Why It Could Work

  • Q1 earnings beat + new 52-week high at $674.19
  • Farm cycle recovering, precision ag demand accelerating
  • Self-driving and smart tractors gaining adoption
  • Government infrastructure spending supports the sector

Warning Signs to Watch

  • If price falls below $620 (fills the earnings gap)
  • If agricultural commodity prices drop sharply
  • If tariffs escalate on equipment (trade war risk)
  • If farm incomes deteriorate

Key Price Levels

Entry: $650-$665
Stop Loss: $620
Target 1: $700
Target 2: $750
R/R: 1:2.0
Timeframe: 5-20 days

AG

First Majestic Silver — NYSE • Materials / Silver Mining • Cap: $13.5B
SAFE HAVEN + COMMODITY +11.18% NEW 52-WEEK HIGH $27.90
$27.55
+11.18%

What is a Safe Haven? A "safe haven" is an investment that tends to hold or increase in value when the broader market falls. Gold and silver are classic safe havens. When investors are worried about the economy, they move money into these metals. AG (First Majestic Silver) is a silver mining company, so its stock price goes up when silver prices rise. Think of it as a "leveraged" way to invest in silver — if silver goes up 5%, a silver miner might go up 10-15%.

A+
Grade
89
Technical
91
Volume
94
Momentum
82
Risk

Composite Score

Setup Profile

Why This Stock?

First Majestic Silver is riding the spectacular precious metals rally: silver surged +3.73% to $80.53/oz and gold topped $5,000 ($5,052.10, +1.09%). A weak US dollar (DXY at 97.91) directly supports metal prices because when the dollar falls, metals become cheaper for international buyers. Geopolitical tensions with Iran add a "safe haven premium" (extra demand from worried investors). AG is the purest silver play, gaining +11.18% on massive volume of 27.77M shares (5 times the daily average), confirming a major shift of institutional money into precious metals. The price is well above its 50-day average ($19.50), showing exceptional momentum. Beyond the safe haven appeal, silver also has strong industrial demand from solar panels, electronics, and electric vehicles.

Why It Could Work

  • Silver at $80.53 (+3.73%), gold above $5,000
  • Weak dollar (DXY 97.91) supports metal prices
  • Iran tensions adding safe-haven demand
  • Volume 5x normal: major institutional buying

Warning Signs to Watch

  • If silver drops below $75 (precious metals correction)
  • If the dollar rebounds above 100 (strong dollar = weak metals)
  • If Iran tensions ease (removes safe-haven demand)
  • If trading volume dries up below 5M (momentum exhaustion)

Key Price Levels

Entry: $26.50-$27.50
Stop Loss: $24.00
Target 1: $30.00
Target 2: $34.00
R/R: 1:2.2
Timeframe: 5-15 days

ETSY

Etsy Inc — NASDAQ • Consumer Discretionary / E-Commerce • Cap: $4.77B
CATALYST + OVERSOLD BOUNCE +8.39% DEPOP SALE $1.2B
$52.18
+8.39%

What is "Oversold"? A stock is "oversold" when its price has dropped more than fundamentals justify, often due to panic selling. Think of it like a sale at a store — the product is the same, but the price is lower. ETSY had fallen a lot and was "oversold." Then, a catalyst (the Depop sale for $1.2B) triggered a bounce. The forward P/E of 8.2x is low for an e-commerce company, meaning the stock looks cheap relative to future earnings.

A
Grade
85
Technical
93
Volume
88
Momentum
83
Risk

Composite Score

Setup Profile

Why This Stock?

Etsy announced the sale of Depop (a second-hand fashion app) to eBay for $1.2 billion, expected to close in Q2 2026. This is a major catalyst: it unlocks cash for shareholders and lets Etsy refocus on its core handmade marketplace. The stock bounced +8.39% to $52.18, continuing its recovery with strong volume. The forward P/E ratio is historically low for Etsy, suggesting pessimism is starting to fade. Etsy has a unique position in e-commerce as the go-to platform for handmade and artisanal goods. The stock is still 32% below its 52-week high of $76.52, so there's significant room for recovery. The 50-day moving average at $56.14 (the average price over 50 days) is the natural first target.

Why It Could Work

  • Depop sale to eBay for $1.2B — major cash injection
  • Bouncing from an oversold zone near the year's low ($40)
  • Volume 5x normal: institutional buyers stepping in
  • Forward P/E of 8.2x is cheap for an e-commerce recovery play

Warning Signs to Watch

  • If price falls below $43.00 (support lost)
  • If Depop deal falls through (regulatory block)
  • If e-commerce consumer spending weakens broadly
  • If post-catalyst volume fades below 3M shares

Key Price Levels

Entry: $46-$48.50
Stop Loss: $43.00
Target 1: $56.14 (50-day avg)
Target 2: $65.00
R/R: 1:2.5
Timeframe: 5-15 days

LITE

Lumentum Holdings — NASDAQ • Technology / Fiber Optics • Cap: $45.4B
MOMENTUM + AI INFRA +5.05% NEW 52-WEEK HIGH $667.77
$667.77
+5.05%

What is AI Infrastructure? AI doesn't just exist in software — it needs massive physical infrastructure. LITE makes the fiber optic components that connect servers in data centers. Think of it like building highways: before cars (AI models) can drive, someone needs to build the roads (fiber optic cables). Hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are spending $200B+ building data centers, and LITE provides critical "plumbing" they all need.

A
Grade
92
Technical
85
Volume
95
Momentum
78
Risk

Composite Score

Setup Profile

Why This Stock?

Lumentum Holdings hit a new 52-week high at $667.77, confirming the long-term AI infrastructure trend. The company makes critical optical components that connect servers in data centers — a bottleneck for AI training. The stock gained +5.05%, boosted by the Supreme Court tariff relief and anticipation of NVDA earnings on Feb 25. The massive demand for fiber optics from hyperscalers (big cloud companies spending $200B+) gives the company multi-year visibility. The forward P/E of 45.2x is high but justified by explosive growth in this segment. NVDA earnings on Feb 25 could amplify the momentum across the entire AI supply chain.

Why It Could Work

  • 52-week high breakout, riding the AI infrastructure wave
  • Critical data center optical component supplier
  • Price is well above its 50-day average (sign of strong trend)
  • AI spending cycle: $200B+ from hyperscalers

Warning Signs to Watch

  • If price falls below $570 (a 10%+ pullback)
  • If big tech companies slow their AI spending
  • If competitors (Coherent, II-VI) take market share
  • If heavy selling volume appears (profit-taking)

Key Price Levels

Entry: $650-$670
Stop Loss: $600
Target 1: $720
Target 2: $800
R/R: 1:1.7
Timeframe: 5-20 days

FIX

Comfort Systems USA — NYSE • Industrials / HVAC & Construction • Cap: $48.5B
MOMENTUM + INFRASTRUCTURE +6.46% NEW 52-WEEK HIGH $1,462
$1,462.23
+6.46%

What does FIX do? Comfort Systems USA installs and maintains mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) systems in buildings. They're a key beneficiary of the data center construction boom — every data center needs complex cooling systems, electrical wiring, and plumbing. They also benefit from "reshoring" (companies moving factories back to the US). The stock price is high ($1,462) but that's normal; share price alone doesn't tell you if a stock is expensive or cheap — you need to look at the P/E ratio and market cap.

A
Grade
90
Technical
82
Volume
91
Momentum
84
Risk

Composite Score

Setup Profile

Why This Stock?

Comfort Systems USA directly benefits from the data center and US infrastructure construction boom. They provide the essential mechanical, electrical, and plumbing services that every building needs. The stock set a new 52-week high at $1,462.23, gaining +6.46% on the tariff relief rally and positive construction outlook. The price is well above its 50-day average, confirming strong institutional demand. The company benefits from the non-residential construction boom and reshoring trend (companies moving manufacturing back to the US). Their order book is packed with data center, pharmaceutical, and semiconductor facility projects. Growing recurring service revenue improves earnings visibility.

Why It Could Work

  • Near 52-week high, confirmed uptrend
  • Data center + infrastructure building boom
  • Price well above 50-day average: strong institutional demand
  • Non-residential construction boom + reshoring

Warning Signs to Watch

  • If price falls below $1,250 (momentum broken)
  • If construction spending slows down
  • If interest rates rise sharply (hurts construction)
  • If price drops below the 50-day average ($1,069)

Key Price Levels

Entry: $1,430-$1,465
Stop Loss: $1,350
Target 1: $1,550
Target 2: $1,650
R/R: 1:1.6
Timeframe: 5-20 days

GEV

GE Vernova — NYSE • Industrials / Energy Transition • Cap: $226.4B
MOMENTUM + ENERGY TRANSITION -0.51% NEAR 52-WEEK HIGH $846
$830.34
-0.51%

What is a Spin-Off? GE Vernova was created when General Electric (GE) split into three separate companies. GEV focuses entirely on energy: wind turbines, gas turbines, and grid equipment. A "pure-play" means the company does only one thing, making it easier for investors to bet on the energy transition trend specifically, without being diluted by other businesses.

A
Grade
89
Technical
84
Volume
90
Momentum
86
Risk

Composite Score

Setup Profile

Why This Stock?

GE Vernova is the pure-play energy transition company spun off from General Electric. The stock is consolidating slightly at $830.34 (-0.51%) near its 52-week high of $846, taking a healthy pause. Positioned well above its 50-day moving average, the stock shows strong institutional accumulation (big investors steadily buying). The energy transition megatrend provides multi-year growth visibility. Gas turbine demand is recovering strongly, driven by the need for backup power for renewable energy (wind and solar need backup when the wind doesn't blow or the sun doesn't shine) and data center power needs. The order book is at historic highs. The Supreme Court tariff ruling could benefit the sector if import duties on energy components are removed.

Why It Could Work

  • Near 52-week high, leader in energy transition
  • Grid modernization: massive global investment cycle
  • Gas turbine demand recovery (backup for renewables)
  • Price well above 50-day avg: strong institutional buying

Warning Signs to Watch

  • If price falls below $770 (support lost)
  • If clean energy policy support is reversed
  • If natural gas prices collapse (hurts turbine demand)
  • If wind turbine backlog execution problems emerge

Key Price Levels

Entry: $820-$835
Stop Loss: $770
Target 1: $900
Target 2: $950
R/R: 1:1.8
Timeframe: 5-20 days

CAT

Caterpillar — NYSE • Industrials / Construction Equipment • Cap: $355.9B
MOMENTUM + INFRA CYCLE -0.10% NEAR 52-WEEK HIGH $789
$759.74
-0.10%

What is an Infrastructure Super-Cycle? A "super-cycle" is a long period (years or decades) of above-average demand. Right now, governments worldwide are spending massively on infrastructure: the US IRA and CHIPS Act, the European Green Deal, and emerging market development. Caterpillar, as the world's largest construction equipment maker, sells the bulldozers, excavators, and trucks that build it all. It also has "pricing power" — in times of inflation, they can raise prices without losing customers because there's no real alternative.

A
Grade
91
Technical
86
Volume
92
Momentum
88
Risk

Composite Score

Setup Profile

Why This Stock?

Caterpillar benefits from the global infrastructure super-cycle (IRA + CHIPS Act in the US, European Green Deal, emerging market development). The stock is consolidating at $759.74 (-0.10%) near its 52-week high of $789.81 — a healthy pause after recent gains. Positioned well above its 50-day moving average, momentum remains structurally bullish (upward). As the world's largest construction equipment maker, Caterpillar has exceptional pricing power in an inflationary environment, protecting its profit margins. The Supreme Court tariff ruling could reduce steel and raw material import costs, which is positive. The 0.8% dividend yield adds a small income component. Mining and construction equipment demand stays strong, supported by government programs and industrial reshoring.

Why It Could Work

  • Near 52-week high, riding the global infrastructure wave
  • Benefits from IRA + CHIPS Act spending
  • Strong mining + construction demand
  • Pricing power: can raise prices without losing customers

Warning Signs to Watch

  • If price falls below $710 (technical support broken)
  • If global construction activity slows down
  • If commodity prices collapse (less mining demand)
  • If China economy weakens (key export market)

Key Price Levels

Entry: $750-$762
Stop Loss: $710
Target 1: $800
Target 2: $850
R/R: 1:1.8
Timeframe: 5-20 days

Sector Performance

Here's how different sectors performed today. Materials led (+2.5%) driven by the silver and gold rally after the Supreme Court ruling. Tech and Industrials followed, boosted by the relief rally. Consumer Discretionary jumped with ETSY. Market breadth (the percentage of stocks going up) was positive at 62%, supported by the legal clarity on tariffs.

What is Market Breadth?

Market breadth measures how many stocks are going up vs. going down. A breadth of 62% means 62 out of every 100 stocks rose today. This is considered healthy. If the market goes up but breadth is low (say only 30%), it means just a few big stocks are carrying the market, which is a warning sign. High breadth + rising market = broad-based rally = healthier and more sustainable.

Top Movers Today

Best Industries

Silver +11% • HVAC +6% • Fiber Optics +5%
E-Commerce +8% • Advertising +3%

Top Setups

AG +11.18% • ETSY +8.39% • FIX +6.46%
NICE +5.50% • LITE +5.05% • OMC +2.87%
DE +0.07% • GEV -0.51% • CAT -0.10%

Worst Industries

Solar Energy -3% • Auto Dealers -2%
Mortgage Finance -2% • Rental Services -1%
Utilities -0.2%

Market Breadth: 62% positive (healthy)

Quick Glossary

Here are the key terms used in this scanner, explained in plain language.

52-Week High / Low

The highest or lowest price a stock has reached in the past year. Hitting a new 52-week high usually signals strong buying demand.

Breakout

When a stock's price moves above a key resistance level (a price ceiling it previously couldn't pass). This often signals the start of a new upward move.

DMA (Day Moving Average)

The average price over a number of days (e.g., 50 DMA = 50-day average). If a stock is above its 50 DMA, it suggests an upward trend. The 200 DMA is used for longer-term trends.

DXY (Dollar Index)

Measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of other currencies. When DXY falls, gold and silver often rise because they become cheaper for foreign buyers.

Earnings Beat

When a company reports profits (earnings) higher than what analysts expected. This often causes the stock to jump because the company did better than people thought.

Entry / Stop Loss / Target

Entry = the price range to buy. Stop Loss = the price where you sell to limit your loss if the trade goes wrong. Target = the price where you take profits. Always set a stop loss before entering a trade.

Forward P/E (Price-to-Earnings)

The stock price divided by next year's expected earnings per share. A lower P/E means the stock is "cheaper" relative to its earnings. Example: a P/E of 10x means you pay $10 for every $1 of expected earnings.

Gap Up

When a stock opens significantly higher than the previous day's close, creating a visible "gap" on the chart. This usually happens after major news (earnings, M&A). A gap-up on high volume is a strong bullish signal.

Momentum

The strength and speed of a price trend. Strong momentum means the price is moving decisively in one direction. Think of it like a ball rolling downhill — the faster it goes, the more momentum it has.

R/R (Risk/Reward Ratio)

Compares how much you could lose (risk) vs. how much you could gain (reward). A 1:2 R/R means for every $1 you risk losing, you could make $2. Aim for R/R of at least 1:1.5.

Relief Rally

A short-term bounce in stock prices when a feared event turns out better than expected, or when uncertainty is resolved. Today's rally came after the Supreme Court removed tariff uncertainty.

Short Squeeze

When traders who bet against a stock ("short sellers") are forced to buy it back as the price rises, creating even more buying pressure. This can cause sudden, dramatic price spikes.

VIX (Fear Index)

Measures expected stock market volatility. Below 15 = calm market, 15-25 = normal caution, above 25 = high fear. At 19.28, the VIX shows moderate concern — not panic, but not complacency either.

Volume

The number of shares traded during a period. High volume confirms price moves — a breakout on 5x normal volume is much more reliable than one on low volume. Think of volume as "conviction" behind a move.

How the Scanner Works

Our algorithm follows a 5-step process every day to find the best trading opportunities. Here's how it works, explained simply.

Step 1: Check the Market Mood

First, the algorithm looks at 6 big-picture indicators (the VIX fear index, dollar strength, stock market level, bond prices, credit conditions, and market liquidity) to figure out the market's "mood." This determines which types of trades are most likely to work. In today's cautious Early Risk-Off environment, the scanner favors setups with strong catalysts and clear risk levels.

Step 2: Scan With 4 Strategies

The scanner uses four complementary strategies to find candidates:

  • Short Squeeze (40% weight today) — Looks for stocks where short sellers could be forced to buy back, creating upward pressure
  • Pre-Squeeze (35%) — Finds stocks where volatility is compressing before a big move
  • Breakout (15%) — Identifies stocks breaking above key price levels with strong volume
  • Momentum (10%) — Catches stocks in strong, established uptrends

Step 3: Score Each Stock (4 Factors)

Every candidate gets scored on 4 factors, each worth up to 25 points (total: 100):

  • Technical (25 pts) — How good does the price chart look? (patterns, moving averages, indicators)
  • Volume (25 pts) — Is there strong trading activity confirming the move?
  • Momentum (25 pts) — How strong is the trend? Is it accelerating?
  • Risk (25 pts) — How manageable is the downside? (clear stop levels, good R/R ratio)

Step 4: Filter for A+ Quality

To make the final cut, each setup must pass these checks:

  • Has a clear catalyst (earnings beat, news, sector rotation)
  • Volume at least 2x the 20-day average (confirms real buying)
  • Risk/Reward ratio of at least 1:1.5 (potential gain > potential loss)
  • Clear entry, stop loss, and target price levels

Step 5: Rank and Select Top 10

The final selection ranks all candidates by their composite score and picks the top 10, ensuring a good mix across sectors and themes: earnings plays, safe havens, catalyst events, and infrastructure trends.

Data Sources

Yahoo Finance (quotes, charts, technical indicators), Fintel (institutional data, dark pools), ChartExchange (volume profiles, support/resistance), SEC EDGAR (regulatory filings, insider trades), AlphaVantage (fundamentals, earnings), AmericanBulls (trading signals), StockTwits/Reddit (sentiment). Updated: end of day.

Important Disclaimer

This scanner is an educational and informational tool only. It is NOT investment advice. It does NOT tell you to buy or sell anything. The setups shown are generated by algorithms using historical data, which cannot predict the future. Stock markets can go down as well as up, and you could lose some or all of the money you invest. Before making any investment decision, you should consult a licensed financial advisor who knows your personal situation. Market Watch and its contributors accept no responsibility for any financial losses. Data shown may contain errors or delays. Never invest money you cannot afford to lose.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Fintel, ChartExchange, SEC EDGAR, AlphaVantage, AmericanBulls, StockTwits, Reddit, MarketWatch Gateway.
Last updated: February 20, 2026 23:00 UTC • Regime: EARLY RISK-OFF (0.51) • 10 A+ setups

© 2026 Market Watch • market-watch.xyz

Institutional analyses • Algorithmic scanning • Data-driven insights

RégimePerformanceMéthodologieDisclaimer