Daily Scanner | February 15, 2026

Market Regime

Early Risk-Off Detected

The market is entering a phase of heightened caution. Volatility is rising (elevated VIX), the dollar is strengthening (bullish DXY), and bonds are gaining (TLT in demand). Defensive strategies and short squeeze setups are favored in this regime. Credit is tightening slightly and liquidity is declining, signaling institutional repositioning toward safe-haven assets.

Multi-Factor Score

Overall Risk

Strategic Allocation

How to read the regime

The radar shows the 6 components of the market regime. The further a component is from the center, the more it contributes to risk. The gauge indicates the overall risk level (0 = very low, 100 = extreme). The treemap shows the optimal allocation among the 4 trading strategies based on the detected regime. In Early Risk-Off, short squeeze (40%) and pre-squeeze (35%) strategies dominate because they benefit from volatility and short-seller compression.

Quick Summary

Overview of the 10 setups detected today. The composite score integrates 5 factors: RSI, Volume, Momentum, Support/Resistance, and Sentiment. Tickers are ranked by descending score.

Composite Scores

Factor Breakdown

Reading guide

The bar chart ranks the 10 tickers by descending composite score. The longer the bar, the stronger the setup. The heatmap breaks down this score into 5 independent factors. Warm colors (red/orange) indicate a strong factor, cool colors (blue) a weak one. An ideal setup has all factors above 60.

ADBE

Adobe Inc. — NASDAQ • Software

SHORT SQUEEZE RELIABILITY 85%

$432.80

-2.4%

Composite

RSI

Volume

Momentum

S/R

Sentiment

Setup Description

ADBE presents a classic short squeeze setup in an Early Risk-Off regime. The stock has corrected 8% from its recent highs, creating a partially filled bearish gap. The RSI 14 has dropped to 35, entering oversold territory with a nascent bullish divergence on the MACD. Selling volume has dried up over the last 3 sessions while short interest remains elevated at 4.2% of float. Bollinger Bands are contracting, signaling an imminent compression.

Confirmations

Bullish RSI divergence on daily
Gradually declining selling volume
EMA 200 support at $425 held 3 times
OBV rising despite price decline

Invalidations

Close below EMA 200 ($425)
Selling volume exceeding 2x the average
MACD crossing back below its signal line
Poor earnings or lowered guidance

Alerts

$425.00 — EMA 200 support (invalidation if broken)
$440.50 — Intermediate resistance (gap to fill)
$458.00 — Target 1 (52W resistance)

Trade Setup

Entry

$430-435

Stop Loss

$420

Target 1

$458

R/R

1:2.3

ADP

Automatic Data Processing — NASDAQ • Payroll Services

PRE-SQUEEZE RELIABILITY 82%

$305.20

+0.8%

Composite

RSI

Volume

Momentum

S/R

Sentiment

Setup Description

ADP shows a pre-squeeze pattern with sharply contracting Bollinger Bands (bandwidth at its lowest in 20 sessions). The stock has been consolidating in a tight $300-$310 range for 2 weeks. Volume is steadily declining, typical of a Wyckoff accumulation phase. RSI at 48 is neutral, but the MACD is crossing upward. Moderate short interest (2.1%) and rising CTB suggest selling pressure that could reverse.

Confirmations

Bollinger bandwidth at 20-day low
Confirmed bullish MACD crossover
Accumulation volume rising
Solid SMA 50 support at $298

Invalidations

Close below SMA 50 ($298)
Distribution volume exceeding 1.5x average
RSI below 35 with negative momentum
Rapidly deteriorating macro environment

Alerts

$298.00 — SMA 50 support (invalidation if broken)
$310.00 — Upper range resistance (breakout trigger)
$325.00 — Target 1 (previous high)

Trade Setup

Entry

$303-308

Stop Loss

$295

Target 1

$325

R/R

1:2.0

ABBV

AbbVie Inc. — NYSE • Pharmaceuticals

SHORT SQUEEZE RELIABILITY 80%

$198.40

-1.2%

Composite

RSI

Volume

Momentum

S/R

Sentiment

Setup Description

ABBV sits on a major support level (EMA 200 + psychological $200 level). The stock shows an RSI at 32, in oversold territory, with elevated short interest at 3.8% of float. The CTB has climbed to 2.4%, indicating pressure on short sellers. A double bottom pattern is forming on the daily chart, with volume increasing on the second leg. The pharma sector benefits from defensive positioning in a risk-off regime.

Confirmations

Double bottom on EMA 200 support
RSI in oversold territory (32)
CTB rising to 2.4%
Defensive sector in demand

Invalidations

Break below $194 (double bottom invalidated)
FDA pipeline failure (negative news)
Accelerated selling volume on gap down
Confirmed loss of EMA 200 support

Alerts

$194.00 — Double bottom low (invalidation)
$205.00 — Double bottom neckline (breakout)
$218.00 — Target 1 (pattern projection)

Trade Setup

Entry

$196-200

Stop Loss

$191

Target 1

$218

R/R

1:2.5

AA

Alcoa Corp. — NYSE • Aluminum

BREAKOUT SQUEEZE RELIABILITY 77%

$38.70

+3.1%

Composite

RSI

Volume

Momentum

S/R

Sentiment

Setup Description

AA is attempting a breakout above the $38 resistance after 3 weeks of consolidation. Volume surged to 2.5x the average over the last 2 sessions, typical of a breakout squeeze. The ATR 14 exceeds ATR 28 by 25%, confirming volatility expansion. The stock is above its SMA 20 and SMA 50, with an RSI at 58 showing momentum without being overbought. Rising aluminum prices support the move.

Confirmations

Breakout above $38 with 2.5x volume
ATR14 > ATR28 by 25% (expansion)
Rising aluminum prices
Above SMA 20 and SMA 50

Invalidations

Drop back below $36.50 (false breakout)
Volume falls back below average
Drop in aluminum prices
Strong dollar penalizing commodities

Alerts

$36.50 — Key support (breakout invalidation)
$40.00 — Psychological resistance
$44.00 — Target 1 (November high)

Trade Setup

Entry

$38-39

Stop Loss

$35.80

Target 1

$44

R/R

1:1.8

ACAD

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals — NASDAQ • Biotech

SHORT SQUEEZE RELIABILITY 79%

$16.85

-0.6%

Composite

RSI

Volume

Momentum

S/R

Sentiment

Setup Description

ACAD presents short squeeze potential with SI at 12.8% of float and CTB at 8.5%. The stock is in oversold territory (RSI 28) after a 15% correction. Unusual volume over the last 2 sessions suggests short covering. Support at $16 corresponds to a significant volume profile level. The pharma pipeline includes upcoming FDA catalysts that could trigger rapid short covering.

Confirmations

SI 12.8% of float + CTB 8.5%
Deeply oversold RSI (28)
Unusual volume rising
Volume profile support at $16

Invalidations

Close below $15
FDA rejection or approval delay
Dilution announced (ATM offering)
Volume drops without price recovery

Alerts

$15.00 — Critical support (invalidation)
$18.50 — EMA 50 resistance (target 1)
$21.00 — Gap fill (target 2)

Trade Setup

Entry

$16.50-17

Stop Loss

$14.80

Target 1

$21

R/R

1:2.4

AAP

Advance Auto Parts — NYSE • Auto Parts Retail

PRE-SQUEEZE RELIABILITY 75%

$42.30

+1.5%

Composite

RSI

Volume

Momentum

S/R

Sentiment

Setup Description

AAP is consolidating after a 20% bounce from December lows. Bollinger Bands are contracting sharply, signaling an imminent move. Volume is at a 30-session low, typical of a pre-squeeze phase. The stock is just above its SMA 20 ($41.50) with a neutral RSI at 52. Short interest at 8.5% of float creates covering potential in case of a breakout. The auto parts sector benefits from favorable consumer trends.

Confirmations

Bollinger bandwidth at 30-day low
Consolidating above SMA 20
Short interest 8.5% + covering potential
Neutral RSI with upside potential

Invalidations

Break below SMA 20 ($41.50)
Downside breakout from squeeze
Disappointing earnings (upcoming report)
Increased competition in the sector

Alerts

$41.50 — SMA 20 support (invalidation)
$45.00 — Upper range resistance (breakout)
$50.00 — Target 1 (gap fill)

Trade Setup

Entry

$42-43

Stop Loss

$40

Target 1

$50

R/R

1:2.7

ACM

AECOM Technology — NYSE • Infrastructure

PRE-SQUEEZE RELIABILITY 76%

$112.50

+0.4%

Composite

RSI

Volume

Momentum

S/R

Sentiment

Setup Description

ACM is consolidating within an ascending triangle between $108 and $115. Volatility is sharply contracting with ATR 14 at a 40-session low. The stock benefits from the US infrastructure cycle and sustained government spending. RSI at 54 is neutral and the MACD shows a bullish crossover. The order book is heavily long with a 3.2:1 call/put ratio on options.

Confirmations

Well-formed ascending triangle
ATR contracting (pre-expansion)
Call/Put ratio 3.2:1 (bullish flow)
Favorable US infrastructure cycle

Invalidations

Break below trendline ($108)
Government spending cuts
Declining volume without breakout
RSI below 40 with bearish divergence

Alerts

$108.00 — Ascending trendline (invalidation)
$115.00 — Horizontal resistance (breakout trigger)
$125.00 — Target 1 (triangle projection)

Trade Setup

Entry

$111-114

Stop Loss

$106

Target 1

$125

R/R

1:1.9

ACHC

Acadia Healthcare — NASDAQ • Healthcare Facilities

SHORT SQUEEZE RELIABILITY 74%

$28.40

-1.8%

Composite

RSI

Volume

Momentum

S/R

Sentiment

Setup Description

ACHC is under heavy selling pressure with SI at 18.2% of float and CTB at 14%. The stock has fallen 45% in 6 months but shows signs of seller exhaustion. RSI at 25 is in extreme oversold territory with a bullish divergence on the weekly chart. Volume over the last 5 sessions is 40% above average, indicating emerging buyer interest. The days-to-cover ratio at 7.5 makes a mechanical short squeeze possible.

Confirmations

SI 18.2% + CTB 14% (shorts under pressure)
Extreme oversold RSI (25) + divergence
Days to cover 7.5 (mechanical squeeze)
Buying volume up 40%

Invalidations

Unresolved DOJ/SEC investigation
New low below $26
Dilution or toxic financing announced
Additional management turnover

Alerts

$26.00 — Absolute support (recent low)
$32.00 — EMA 20 resistance (target 1)
$38.00 — Gap fill (target 2)

Trade Setup

Entry

$27-29

Stop Loss

$25

Target 1

$38

R/R

1:3.0

ACMR

ACM Research — NASDAQ • Semiconductor Equipment

MOMENTUM EXPANSION RELIABILITY 73%

$22.60

+4.2%

Composite

RSI

Volume

Momentum

S/R

Sentiment

Setup Description

ACMR shows momentum expansion with volume at 2.8x the average over the last 2 sessions. The stock broke above its SMA 20 with force and RSI at 62 is rising without being overbought. MACD is in positive territory and accelerating. The semiconductor equipment sector benefits from the CHIPS Act cycle and domestic manufacturing investments. China exposure remains a risk but the order backlog is growing.

Confirmations

Volume 2.8x the average (expansion)
SMA 20 breakout with momentum
MACD accelerating in positive territory
Semi equipment sector in favor

Invalidations

Drop back below SMA 20 ($20.50)
US-China tensions on semi exports
Bearish RSI divergence
Volume dropping off quickly

Alerts

$20.50 — SMA 20 (invalidation on pullback)
$25.00 — Psychological resistance (target 1)
$28.00 — Previous high (target 2)

Trade Setup

Entry

$22-23

Stop Loss

$19.80

Target 1

$28

R/R

1:2.1

AAON

AAON Inc. — NASDAQ • HVAC Manufacturing

PRE-SQUEEZE RELIABILITY 72%

$98.20

-0.3%

Composite

RSI

Volume

Momentum

S/R

Sentiment

Setup Description

AAON is consolidating in a tight $95-$100 range with Bollinger Bands at maximum contraction over 25 sessions. Volume is progressively drying up, a classic pre-squeeze signal. The stock is above all its moving averages (SMA 20, 50, 200), confirming a bullish structure. The HVAC sector benefits from data center demand and energy efficiency trends. RSI at 50 is perfectly neutral, leaving room for expansion in either direction.

Confirmations

Confirmed Bollinger squeeze (minimum bandwidth)
Above SMA 20/50/200
HVAC sector in demand (data centers)
Consecutive earnings beats (3 quarters)

Invalidations

Break below SMA 50 ($94)
Bearish breakout from squeeze
Rising rates penalizing real estate
Earnings miss on the next quarter

Alerts

$94.00 — SMA 50 (invalidation)
$100.00 — Upper range resistance (breakout)
$112.00 — Target 1 (52W high)

Trade Setup

Entry

$97-100

Stop Loss

$92

Target 1

$112

R/R

1:2.0

Methodology

How the scanner works

The MarketWatch algorithmic scanner analyzes the entire US market daily in 3 steps:

1. Market Regime Detection

The system evaluates 6 macro components (VIX, SPX, DXY, Credit, Liquidity, TLT) to determine the dominant regime among 5 states: Risk-On (bullish market, momentum), Neutral (balanced), Early Risk-Off (rising volatility), Risk-Off (defensive market), and Recovery (post-crash). Each regime automatically adjusts strategy weightings.

2. Screening Strategies

Strategy	Description	DSL Conditions	Optimal Regime
Short Squeeze	Stocks with high SI and exhausting selling pressure	`rsi14<35 && vol>sma(vol,20)*1.5`	Early Risk-Off
Pre-Squeeze	Contracting volatility, imminent move	`atr(14)<atr(28)0.8 && bb_width<bb_width_sma0.7`	Early Risk-Off
Breakout Squeeze	Resistance breakout with volume and ATR expansion	`close>sma(close,50) && atr(14)>atr(28)*1.2`	Recovery
Momentum Expansion	Bullish trend with accelerating momentum	`close>sma(close,20) && vol>sma(vol,20)*2 && rsi14>50`	Risk-On

3. Composite Scoring

Each candidate is evaluated on 5 independent factors, scored from 0 to 100:

RSI

Relative Strength Index

Oversold/overbought signal strength

Volume

Relative Volume

Volume / 20-day average ratio

Momentum

MACD + Direction

Trend strength and direction

S/R

Support / Resistance

Proximity to key levels

Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

StockTwits + Reddit + Options flow

Composite score

The composite score is the weighted average of the 5 factors, adjusted by market regime. In Early Risk-Off, RSI and S/R factors are overweighted (1.3x coefficient) because oversold setups and support levels become more decisive. A score above 75 is considered strong, 60-75 moderate, and below 60 weak.

Sources & Disclaimer

Data Sources

Source	Data	Frequency
MarketWatch Gateway	Quotes, bars, technicals, sentiment	Real-time
Yahoo Finance	Fundamentals, metadata, stats	Daily
Fintel / ChartExchange	Short interest, CTB, dark pool	Daily
AmericanBulls	Technical trading signals	Daily
SEC EDGAR	Filings, insider transactions	Real-time
StockTwits / Reddit	Social sentiment	Real-time

Important Disclaimer

This report is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell, or a solicitation to invest. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves risks of capital loss. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision. Data is collected automatically and may contain errors or delays. Market Watch disclaims all liability for losses related to the use of this report.