Friday Close — March 13, 2026
Bilan Hebdomadaire — Week of March 9-13
This was a week of cascading shocks: negative payrolls (-92K), Hormuz closure, Oracle's cloud blowout (+10% AH), ULTA/DG earnings misses, and a CPI hotter than anyone expected (+3.1%). Every day added a layer to the stagflation thesis. Only one sector finished the week positive.
Weekly Index Performance
| Index | Fri Close | Week % | YTD | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,632 | -2.2% | -8.5% | 3rd weekly loss |
| Nasdaq 100 | 22,105 | -3.8% | -9.4% | Tech carnage |
| Dow Jones | 46,558 | -1.4% | -5.8% | Relative resilience |
| Russell 2000 | 2,503 | -4.1% | -11.4% | Hardest hit |
| VIX | 27.19 | +9.1% wk | — | Stress zone |
Weekly Sector Performance
Day-by-Day Narrative
Mar 9
Mar 10
Mar 11
Mar 12
Mar 13
Friday Session Detail
Friday closed with only Energy (XLE +0.33%) and Financials (XLF +0.12%) green. Every other sector fell. Technology lost -2.93%, Consumer Discretionary -2.41%, Real Estate -1.71%. The breadth was catastrophic — only 14% of S&P 500 stocks closed positive.
Top & Bottom Performers Friday
Friday Winners
Friday Losers
Rates & Dollar — Friday EOD
| Instrument | Level | Week Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 2-Year | 4.43% | +8 bps | Fed hold fully priced |
| US 10-Year | 4.71% | +15 bps | Stagflation premium |
| US 30-Year | 4.73% | +11 bps | Term premium rising |
| DXY | 100.50 | +1.8% wk | USD flight to safety |
| EUR/USD | 1.1341 | -1.6% wk | Dollar reversal |
| TLT (20Y ETF) | $84.60 | -1.12% Fri | Bonds bleeding |
European Markets — Weekly
| Index | Fri Close | Week % | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | 23,841 | -0.8% | Defense/energy offset tech drag |
| CAC 40 | 8,124 | -1.1% | TotalEnergies +1.2% vs LVMH -2.3% |
| FTSE 100 | 8,812 | +0.3% | Shell +2.1%, BP +1.8% — oil-heavy index wins |
| STOXX 600 | 554.2 | -0.6% | Energy/defense vs tech drag |
FTSE 100 was the week's strongest major index (+0.3%) — its energy heavyweighting (Shell, BP) shielded it from the broader selloff. Rheinmetall hit a new all-time high on EU defense spending. Germany's €500B infrastructure fund in final parliamentary approval. EUR/USD dropped from 1.1668 → 1.1341 as the dollar rebounded on hot CPI. ECB April meeting now the next key date (one more cut possible if oil impact is deemed temporary).
Asia-Pacific — Weekly
| Index | Level | Week % | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 38,421 | -2.3% | Yen 149.8/USD, energy import shock |
| KOSPI | 2,741 | -3.1% | Samsung -1.2%, SK Hynix -2.3% |
| Hang Seng | 23,148 | -1.4% | Tech selloff, PBOC supports |
| Shanghai Comp. | 3,589 | -0.7% | PBOC CNY 500B injection provides floor |
| ASX 200 | 8,024 | +0.4% | BHP +2.1%, RIO +1.8% — commodities |
Crypto — Weekend Watch
BTC closed Friday at $70,820 (+0.01%) — notably resilient vs Nasdaq -0.93%. Short squeeze in MARA (+6.4%) and GLXY (+8.3%) confirmed institutional crypto-proxy bid. BTC above $70K is constructive. Key weekend binary: Iran ceasefire = BTC $74K+. Further escalation = BTC retest $68K.
| Asset | Price | Fri 24h | 7d | Key Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $70,820 | +0.01% | -3.4% | Support $68K | Resistance $73.8K |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,089 | -1.2% | -5.8% | Support $2,000 | Resistance $2,300 |
| Solana (SOL) | $89.40 | -0.8% | -7.2% | Support $82 | Resistance $100 |
| XRP | $1.80 | -2.1% | -6.4% | Support $1.65 | Resistance $2.10 |
Géopolitique
Iran War — Day 13→15: Weekend is the Pivot
Mojtaba Khamenei confirmed Hormuz closure. Friday sequence: partial reopening signal ($91) → Trump "hard hit" warning → $103.86. USS Reagan carrier group arrives Persian Gulf ~Monday. Saudi Arabia quietly increased output +400K BOE/day. OPEC+ emergency meeting rumored this weekend. Tree: Ceasefire = Brent -$20 Monday gap. Trump military action = Brent $120+. Status quo = $95-105 range. This is THE variable for the week ahead.
FOMC March 18-19 — The Impossible Meeting
CPI +3.1% (too hot to cut) + Payrolls -92K (too weak to hike). Federal Reserve holds at 4.50% — 100% priced. The risk is the dot plot: expected to show 0 cuts in 2026 (from 2 in December). Any language acknowledging "stagflation" will be a historic first. Powell press conference Wednesday 2:30 PM ET is the market moment of the week. Expect ±2% intraday move.
Trade War — April 2 USMCA Deadline in 18 Days
Canada/Mexico USMCA exemptions expire April 2. SCOTUS IEEPA ruling created legal gray zone. White House new EO maintained tariffs on strategic industries (semis, EVs, batteries). Supply chain uncertainty preventing capital allocation. April 2 = next major binary after FOMC.
Métaux Précieux
Gold intraday Friday: spiked to $5,318 on CPI shock at 8:30 AM, then partially reversed to $5,023 EOD as DXY bounced. Net weekly +3.4%. GLD ETF: record $2.1B inflows this week. Gold/Silver ratio at 168x is historically stretched — silver should eventually mean-revert. Central bank buying structural (PBOC, RBI, NBP added gold in Feb per WGC). Next resistance: $5,400.
Formation du Jour — Navigating Stagflation
Last seen 1973-1982. It's back. Here's the playbook.
Why This Week Was Historic
CPI +3.1% + payrolls -92K simultaneously: that's textbook stagflation — hot prices AND slowing growth. The last prolonged US stagflation lasted 9 years (1973-1982) triggered by the OPEC oil shock. Today's Iran/Hormuz crisis is creating the same energy shock dynamic. The resolution: Iran ceasefire (oil -$20), demand destruction recession, or Volcker-style rate hikes. None of these are easy.
The Stagflation Playbook
- Energy (XLE, XOM, COP, CVX)
- Gold & miners (GLD, GDX, NEM)
- Defense (LMT, RTX, NOC)
- Healthcare (JNJ, MRK, ABT)
- Commodities (DBA, GSG, CF)
- Growth tech (QQQ, NVDA, META)
- Consumer Discretionary (AMZN, TSLA)
- REITs (VNQ — rising yields kill)
- Long bonds (TLT initially)
- Small caps (IWM — credit stress)
Trade Ideas — FOMC Week
Swing setups for the coming FOMC week (Mar 18-19). Volatility will be elevated. All stops are firm.
TRADE #1 — CVX (Long) · Energy Stagflation · 2-4 Weeks
Chevron approaching 52-week high with Brent $103. Permian production = zero Hormuz exposure. Hess acquisition closes Q2 (Guyana reserves). 3.4% dividend yield. Stagflation = energy outperforms for quarters. FOMC cannot cut → no competition from bonds. Scanner score 90.
TRADE #2 — RTX (Long) · Defense / NATO · 3-5 Weeks
Raytheon at 52-week high on record NATO procurement orders (March 13 8-K). $202B backlog = multi-year earnings visibility. Iran War + EU defense spending (Germany €500B) are structural. Defense +2.1% vs S&P -0.61% on Friday. 2.1% dividend.
TRADE #3 — SQQQ (Tactical Hedge) · Pre-FOMC · Days to 1 Week
3× inverse QQQ. QQQ -9.4% YTD, FOMC dot plot revision (0 cuts) coming Wednesday = tech remains vulnerable. Small size max (10% portfolio). Exit before OpEx Friday March 20. Not a long-term hold.
Preview Semaine Prochaine — FOMC Week
One of the most consequential weeks of 2026. FOMC Wednesday. PCE + Quad Witching Friday. Every day matters.
Ce qu'il faut Surveiller
- Iran War Weekend Days 14-15: Ceasefire signal = Brent -$15-20, massive Mon gap-up in equities. Trump social media posts = leading indicator. USS Reagan arrives Persian Gulf ~Monday.
- FOMC Wednesday 2 PM ET: Dot plot dropping from 2 cuts to 0 in 2026 is the market mover. Watch for Powell saying "stagflation" explicitly — first time for this cycle. Expect ±2% intraday.
- PCE Friday March 20: Second inflation bomb of the week. If follows CPI higher (+0.35% MoM), 10Y yield could break 4.85% and trigger credit stress. Coincides with Quad Witching.
- SPX 6,600 Support: The 200-day MA is ~6,650. Close below 6,600 activates CTA/quant selling programs. Watch Monday's first 30 minutes for directional signal.
- BTC $70K Support: Holding above $70K constructive. Weekend ceasefire = BTC $74K+. Below $68K = cascade to $64K. Thin weekend liquidity amplifies moves.
- Brent $103.86: Sustained above $100 = airline/trucking pain continues. OPEC+ emergency meeting rumored. Saudi Arabia already increased output. Watch for EIA emergency reserve coordination.
- Gold $5,000 Floor: GLD record $2.1B weekly inflows. If holds $5,000 through FOMC week, next target is $5,400. GDX (miners) tends to lead gold by 1-2 sessions.
- Retail Sales Tue + Jobless Claims Thu: Economic data flanking FOMC. Weak retail confirms consumer stress. Jobless claims above 280K = recession signal compounds payrolls -92K.
Sources & Disclaimer
Market Data
- MarketWatch Gateway (MCP) — EOD Mar 13
- BLS.gov (CPI Feb 2026, Payrolls Feb)
- CME Group / FedWatch Tool
- IEA (oil reserve data)
- World Gold Council (central bank flows)
News & Analysis
- Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, FT
- Polymarket (prediction markets)
- SEC EDGAR (RTX 8-K filings)
- Baker Hughes (rig count)