Trump's new 15% global tariff hammers equities: S&P 500 -1.04%, Dow -1.66%, Russell -1.56%. BTC crashes below $63K — lowest since December 2024. Gold surges to $5,196 all-time high. Silver explodes +5.2%. VIX spikes to 21 (elevated regime). Home Depot Q4 earnings this morning. NVIDIA mega-earnings tomorrow. Zelensky peace plan announced today. Initial Jobless Claims Thursday. Healthcare leads rotation, Financials worst sector.
Monday was a broad-based selloff driven by Trump's weekend announcement of a new 15% blanket tariff on all imports. The move came after the Supreme Court struck down a significant portion of his earlier "reciprocal" tariffs, and markets had initially rallied on that ruling last week.
| Index | Close | Change | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,837.75 | -71.76 | -1.04% |
| Dow Jones | 48,804.06 | -821.91 | -1.66% |
| Nasdaq | 22,627.27 | -258.79 | -1.13% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,620.99 | -42.79 | -1.61% |
| GLD (Gold ETF) | 481.28 | +12.66 | +2.70% |
| SLV (Silver ETF) | 80.57 | +3.95 | +5.16% |
| TLT (20Y Bonds) | 89.74 | +0.33 | +0.37% |
Clear risk-off rotation in play. Healthcare led the day (+5% avg) as the lone major winner, driven by a massive biotech rally (Biotechnology +25% avg on M&A speculation). Materials (+2%) and Consumer Staples (+1%) held up as defensive plays. Financials were the worst performers (-4%), followed by Consumer Discretionary (-2%) and Technology (-2%).
Tuesday: Home Depot Q4 (housing/consumer health gauge) + Consumer Confidence. Wednesday: NVIDIA Q4 — the $4 trillion question. Consensus at $65.7B revenue (+67% YoY). Polymarket gives 95% probability of a beat. Forward guidance is the real event. Thursday: Jobless claims + GDP revision. Friday: Core PCE inflation — the Fed's preferred gauge. A hot print could kill any remaining rate cut hopes for 2026.
All four major US indices closed sharply lower on Monday. The Dow Jones took the worst hit at -1.66% (-822 points), weighed by tariff-sensitive industrials. The Russell 2000 dropped -1.61%, confirming small-cap vulnerability to domestic inflation pressures. The S&P 500 fell to 6,837, now -2.2% below its 52-week high of 6,978.
Treasuries rallied modestly as investors sought safety. The 10-year yield dropped 5.7 bps to 4.029% — its first move below 4.05% in weeks. The 30-year fell to 4.696%. The 5-year dropped to 3.582%. TLT (20Y bond ETF) gained +0.37%. The yield curve slope remains flat, signaling recession probability remains elevated.
Gold is the story of the day. $5,196/oz — a new all-time high. GLD ETF surged +2.70% in a single session. Silver joined the party at $87.56/oz (+1.13%), with SLV ETF exploding +5.16%. Crude oil was a mixed bag: WTI at $66.85 (+0.81%), Brent at $71.64 (+0.75%). Copper surged +1.68% on supply squeeze fears. Natural gas dipped -0.24%.
The DXY edged up to 97.87 (+0.17%). EUR/USD was flat at 1.1783. The modest dollar strength amid risk-off is notable — typically dollar rallies harder in tariff scenarios, but the inflation-eroding effect of tariffs is capping upside.
Consensus: EPS $2.52, Revenue $38.0B (-4% YoY). Housing sector remains pressured by elevated mortgage rates and the lock-in effect. However, Polymarket gives 86% probability of a beat. HD is the key consumer/housing bellwether — results will set the tone for the tape today.
European stocks closed lower on Monday as the new global tariff dominated sentiment. The STOXX 600 fell ~0.5% with most major bourses in the red. The Euro Stoxx 50 dropped to 6,109 (-0.37%).
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| EFA (Developed Mkts) | 104.47 | -0.41% |
| EEM (Emerging Mkts) | 61.65 | -1.11% |
| FXI (China Large-Cap) | 38.68 | -0.33% |
Mixed session across Asia-Pacific on February 24. Chip stocks drove divergence between North Asia (strong) and Greater China (weak).
| Market | Move | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | +0.94% | Yen weakness, semiconductor rally |
| Kospi (Korea) | +1.81% | 3rd straight record — chip rally |
| Taiwan Weighted | +2.59% | TSMC-led semiconductor surge |
| Hang Seng | -1.93% | Healthcare selloff, tariff fears |
| FXI (China LC) | -0.33% | Trade war escalation risk |
The chip rally in Northeast Asia is the standout theme. TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix — all surging on NVIDIA earnings anticipation (tomorrow). Korea's Kospi hitting record highs 3 sessions in a row is remarkable given the global tariff backdrop. Meanwhile, China and Hong Kong are lagging as direct tariff targets. The divergence between semiconductor-heavy markets (Taiwan, Korea, Japan) and trade-exposed markets (China, Hong Kong) is the clearest rotation signal in APAC.
BTC broke down hard from the $65.6K–$70K consolidation range that had held for two weeks. The tariff shock was the catalyst, but the crypto-specific bearish factors (ETF outflows, Fed hawkishness, whale losses) amplified the move. $60,074 (52-week low) is now the last line of defense before a potential capitulation to the $55K–$58K range.
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Support 1 | $62,700 | Today's low, intraday bounce level |
| Support 2 | $60,074 | 52-week low — absolute line in sand |
| Resistance 1 | $65,600 | Broken range low, now resistance |
| Resistance 2 | $68,000 | Mid-range level, 24h ago |
ETH plunged to $1,826, down -2.11% and now dangerously close to the $1,387 52-week low. The ETH/BTC ratio continues its relentless decline. ETH is trading at levels not seen since late 2023 relative to BTC. The Merge narrative has fully faded — institutional interest has shifted to BTC and SOL.
SOL at $76.62 — a far cry from its $253 52-week high. Down -70% from highs. XRP fading to $1.33 after last week's brief rally. The "hottest crypto trade of 2026" is giving back gains fast. Overall altcoin market is in full capitulation mode.
President Zelensky is expected to announce his peace plan and wartime elections framework today (February 24). This is the most significant diplomatic development since the Geneva talks. Under US pressure, Ukraine is exploring a referendum-based approach to any peace deal. US-Russia bilateral negotiations began on February 18 in Saudi Arabia. A credible peace framework would be massively bullish for European equities, energy, and risk assets globally.
Trump's new 15% blanket tariff (up from 10%) is now in effect after the Supreme Court struck down "reciprocal" tariffs. China, the EU, and several emerging markets have announced countermeasures. Xi Jinping announced China will eliminate import duties for 53 African countries starting May 1 — a clear strategic play while the US isolates. Secretary of State Rubio condemned "dogmatic free trade" at the Munich Security Conference. The tit-for-tat cycle is accelerating.
The inflation regime is moderate and stable (TIP proxy at 111.29). However, tariffs are a direct inflationary input. The Fed faces a dilemma: tariff-driven inflation argues for tighter policy, while slowing growth argues for cuts. Prediction markets show 50% probability of a rate cut in 2026. Core PCE on Friday will be the most important data point of the week.
A tariff is a tax on imported goods. When the US imposes a 15% tariff on all imports, every foreign product entering the US costs 15% more. This has cascading effects across markets.
| Category | Winners | Losers |
|---|---|---|
| Sectors | Domestic manufacturing, steel, agriculture (short-term) | Retail, autos, tech (import-heavy) |
| Assets | Gold, Treasuries, USD (safe havens) | Equities, crypto, EM currencies |
| Countries | Countries with trade surpluses vs. US | Countries heavily dependent on US exports |
Today is a textbook tariff reaction day. Notice how Gold (+2.7%) surges as the ultimate safe haven, Treasuries (+0.37%) rally on flight to safety, while equities (-1% to -1.7%) sell off on growth fears. BTC (-3%) correlates with risk assets, not gold — disproving the "digital gold" narrative in the current environment. The Dollar (+0.17%) is barely up because tariffs are inflationary (bad for the dollar long-term) but deflationary for growth (good for the dollar short-term). These competing forces create the muted move.
Regime: Elevated (VIX 21). Position sizes should be reduced by 25–30% vs. normal. No more than 2–3% of portfolio per trade. The NVDA trade is event-driven and binary — size accordingly. GLD and TLT are defensive positions appropriate for the current risk-off environment. Always use stops. Core PCE on Friday could reverse any bond/gold trades if inflation prints hot.
We are in an elevated volatility regime (VIX 21, regime score 0.35). The market is caught between two powerful forces: tariff-driven inflation fears and growth slowdown risk. Safe havens (gold, silver, Treasuries) are surging while risk assets (equities, crypto) sell off. The week's catalyst sequence is critical: HD today, NVDA tomorrow, PCE Friday. Any of these can flip the narrative. Stay nimble, keep position sizes small, and respect your stops.
Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Financial Times, TradingView, Polymarket, Bloomberg, Trading Economics, CoinGecko, Fintel, SEC EDGAR, FRED, Motley Fool, TipRanks, S&P Global. Data as of February 24, 2026, 06:00 UTC.
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